ISTANBUL

While Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead in national polls, former President Donald Trump is edging ahead in crucial battleground states, according to the latest data from political website 538, with Election Day just two weeks away.

As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, Trump's strong performance in these swing states could be pivotal, as the US presidency is decided state by state, not by a national popular vote.

Nationwide, Democratic Party candidate Harris polls at 48.1%, holding a modest lead over Trump’s 46.4%. However, Republican candidate Trump is either leading or close behind in several key states that could determine the outcome of the election.

In the Southwestern state of Arizona, a state that flipped blue (Democratic) the first time in decades during the 2020 election, Trump currently leads with 48.6%, while Harris trails at 46.7%. The Democrats secured Arizona in 2020, marking their first presidential victory in the state since the 1990s, but it remains a battleground for 2024.

In the Southern state of Georgia, Trump leads Harris by a slim margin, with 48.5% to her 46.9%. Georgia was a crucial win for Democrats in 2020, as the state had not backed a Democrat for president in almost 30 years.

Arab Americans and the Gaza factor

Michigan, which has the largest proportion of Arab Americans in the country, is also showing a tight race. Harris leads slightly with 47.4%, while Trump stands at 47.2%.

Arab American voters, a key demographic, were pivotal in Biden's 2020 win, but their support for Democrats may be wavering due to the stance of the Joe Biden administration on Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.

Arab American voters are particularly influential in Michigan, and Biden's margin of victory in the state in 2020 was just 150,000 votes.

In a direct appeal to Arab American and Muslim voters, Trump emphasized his stance on Middle East peace, writing on the social media platform Truth Social: "If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames... Vote Trump for PEACE!"

Despite this outreach, Trump continues to brand himself as the most pro-Israel president in US history, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly favors him winning the race.

In the Southwestern state of Nevada, where Democrats have won the last four presidential elections, the race remains tight. Harris is polling at 47.3%, just ahead of Trump’s 47.2%. Despite recent Democratic victories, Republicans are seeing signs of a potential turnaround in the Silver State.

Trump holds a 48.1% lead over Harris’ 47.2% in North Carolina, a traditionally Republican stronghold in the South that Democrats hope to flip in 2024.

Another key battleground state, Pennsylvania, remains competitive, with Trump polling at 47.8% and Harris close behind at 47.5%.

Trump secured a narrow victory in the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 but was defeated by around 1 percentage point in 2020.

The Midwestern state of Wisconsin also shows a narrow margin. Harris leads slightly with 47.8%, compared to Trump’s 47.4%.