After Nasrallah's assassination, what's next for Israel?

ISTANBUL

The recent assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a deadly Israeli bombing south of Beirut has prompted critical questions about Israel's next steps. While speculation abounds on a potential ground invasion of Lebanon, experts suggest that a major land assault is unlikely.

Israeli academic expert Ori Goldberg believes that Israel may play with small incursions, but a major ground offensive might be off the table.

"Effectively speaking, like a major ground invasion where Israel starts going door-to-door to find Hezbollah warriors or Hezbollah arms ... I don't think it's going happen."

Israel's violent escalation in Lebanon has targeted Hezbollah top's leadership, including its secretary-general Nasrallah, who was reportedly killed in "intense and unprecedented" airstrikes Friday evening by Israeli F-35 jets on a target in the Haret Hreik neighborhood, the main stronghold of Hezbollah in southern Beirut.

But to go a step further with boots on the ground could prove more challenging than aerial bombardment — a scenario for which Israel may be ill-prepared.

Challenges of a land invasion

A former university professor, Goldberg backs his assertion by comparing Israel's current efforts to muster its forces on the Lebanese border to its preparations for its ground offensive on Gaza.

"When Israel was preparing to invade Gaza, it deployed or gathered four divisions which is tens of thousands of people. So far, Israel has moved two regiments to the northern border and that's not a lot."

According to him, while a ground invasion may just be another stage of the escalation, it is one that Israelis are "very much afraid of."

"Israelis are afraid of meeting Hezbollah on the ground. It's one thing to use Israel's complete air superiority and bomb from above. It's a very different thing to go fight Hezbollah warfighters on their home terrain."

Also, multiple previous Israeli attempts to wrest Lebanese territory suggest that it would face challenges if it attempted to do so again, according to Goldberg.

"Israel has already invaded Lebanon at least twice more — actually, more like three times.

"Actually, it hasn't succeeded in any one of those times to remain in Lebanon and to keep the land that it occupied. The last time we fought Hezbollah on the ground in 2006, it did not do well."

This time, Tel Aviv would also have to face the added factor of fatigue in its armed forces after a year of fighting in the Gaza Strip, with Goldberg describing its condition as "very bad."

"Generally, the soldiers are exhausted. The military is over-extended. The year of fighting in Gaza has left its mark."

Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy, says if Israel wages a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, which knows the terrain and has spent decades preparing for such a scenario, could have some major advantages.

"Hezbollah possibly having an opportunity to combat Israeli occupiers in southern Lebanon through guerilla warfare could do much to help the resistance organization rebuild," Cafiero told Anadolu.

No clear plans for Lebanon

On Israel's military goals in Lebanon, Goldberg points out that Tel Aviv so far has only sought to kill Nasrallah and other leading figures in Hezbollah.

"Other than that, Israel has targets that it knows ... that its intelligence has determined are of importance, it may want to try and destroy these targets, but there are no other goals.

"The fiction of a ground invasion that will keep Hezbollah at bay is not sustainable," he explained.

Goldberg also noted that depending on who you ask, one could get varying perspectives on a potential war in Lebanon.

"Settlers will say, 'We want to settle in southern Lebanon,' and others will say, 'We want to wake up the Lebanese army so that it rebels against Hezbollah.' Others think that the Lebanese will take to the streets and rebel on Israel's behalf. Israelis think a lot of things are going to happen but there is no clear vision and no clear strategy."

Goldberg argues that Israel is behaving as if it is a "hegemon," accusing Hezbollah of being a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, he says, Israel has employed terrorist methods over the last two weeks, including a deadly attack that caused thousands of pagers and other wireless communication devices to explode across the country.

"So, Israel is turning into its own worst enemy. But that doesn't say anything about Israeli plans. I don't think Israel knows what Israel's plans are."

According to Goldberg, Tel Aviv has stopped short of expanding its list of targets, rather continuing to pursue tactics similar to those it has used so far.

He said that Israel is sending the message that "we can get to anyone, no place is too far from us," adding, however, that this amounts to a very tactical pledge that it will retaliate to any attack.

'No reason to assume that Hezbollah won't be back in action'

Experts said recent attacks by Israel have landed a severe blow to Hezbollah's military capabilities.

"I don't think there's anybody there now who can take Hezbollah to the next stage, which is why I think Hezbollah is not opening the war. As far as Israel is concerned, to open a war, Hezbollah would need to fire a massive barrage of rockets on Tel Aviv. That's not happening so far," says Goldberg.

According to the analyst, with Hezbollah's executive leadership taken out, Israel managed to "cripple" the organization, but the effects of this are not likely to linger further than the "very short term as Hezbollah is a very large organization."

"It's got channels, it's got the chains of command, it's got various structures and apparatuses. There's no reason to assume that Hezbollah won't be back in action in a little (while)," said Goldberg.

He added that Israelis assumed that Hezbollah and its ally Iran would immediately resort to military force against Tel Aviv in the event of a confrontation, though this belief proved false.

"That's because Israelis only understand ... the use of force. Both Iran and Hezbollah took a blow and now they're stopping to reassess and regroup. When Israel was attacked on Oct. 7, Israel didn't stop for a second, (it) just rushed in with the bombers."

Cafiero also recognized the "massive blow" that Nasrallah's assassination was for Hezbollah.

"But none of this means that Israel has defeated Hezbollah. The Lebanese party has been around for decades and has built up support in Lebanese society and in other Arab-Islamic countries. It would be naive to assume that Israel's recent military operations have unraveled Hezbollah, which remains a powerful force with many fighters and regional support."

He also cautioned against expectations that Hezbollah will lay down its arms and surrender to Israel, or that Tel Aviv will stop its brutal attacks on its northern neighbor.

"Unfortunately, I believe this conflict between Hezbollah and Israel might be in its early phase, with much more bloodshed yet to come," said Cafiero.

Israeli support for attacks on Lebanon

With over 800 killed in relentless Israeli attacks on Lebanon since Sept. 23, Goldberg highlighted how the bombings and strikes enjoy the support of much of Israeli society.

"Most of them are very supportive of the war. Most of them want an invasion because only then (they) will they feel safe. I think part of what Israel is doing now is trying to accrue to accumulate enough 'achievements.'

"So, you can then declare victory and tell these residents that it's safe," he explained.

But the Israeli analyst has doubts that this will guarantee security for Israeli residents in the region. "A lot of it is spin and political rhetoric, very little of it is substantive strategy."

Failure of Gaza goals

According to Goldberg, the Israeli government's main objective in Lebanon is a chance for "redemption" for the military's lacking performance in Gaza.

"Israel is doing pretty poorly in Gaza and it is looking at Lebanon also as a chance for redemption," he said, stressing that Israel has not achieved its military objectives in Gaza.

"It hasn't eliminated Hamas. It has decreased its (Hamas') military capabilities significantly, but it hasn't (been) eliminated. Hamas is still there and will likely be part of the political arrangement once the hostilities end and Israel has not succeeded in returning the hostages."

"Even in Gaza, it reached its limit. Israel is doing very little in Gaza now, except some stray bombings."

"It is still killing Palestinians certainly, but it has absolutely no military objectives in Gaza and it has reached this state after a year and during that year, it has failed to achieve the military goals it set itself."