- Netanyahu has a ‘vested interest’ in extending wars, be it Gaza, Lebanon or a regional one, to save his own job and evade accountability, Gordon tells Anadolu

- Netanyahu resigning on his own is the ‘most unlikely possibility’ but his time in office could now just be ‘a matter of months,’ says Yossi Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House

ISTANBUL

Well before Oct. 7, dark clouds were hovering over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future.

There were regular mass protests in Israel, with tens of thousands of people pouring out to vent their anger at Netanyahu and the controversial judicial reforms he has been pushing.

Experts and critics contend that the premier’s plan to weaken the Supreme Court and ensure less judicial oversight of politicians’ policymaking is solely an attempt to protect himself from ongoing cases of fraud, bribery and breach of trust.

Now, months into Israel’s deadly assault on Gaza, Netanyahu seems more adamant to do anything to save his skin, as the hovering clouds have become darker than ever.

From the perceived security failure of Netanyahu, his government and intelligence apparatus, to the uncertain fate of the hostages still with Hamas, there is much that Israelis have to hold against the country’s longest-serving premier who heads the ring-wing Likud party.

With no letup in the Gaza war, which has seen thousands of Palestinians being killed by Israeli forces, calls for Netanyahu’s resignation and early elections are rising, while polls show the silver-haired 74-year-old politician’s popularity is plummeting.

Experts believe that, at the moment, Netanyahu’s political career is simply hinging on support from his current allies.

For analyst Yossi Mekelberg, Netanyahu can only stay in power as long as he has a majority in the Knesset, where he is currently leading a coalition that analysts and critics have described as the most far-right one in Israel’s history.

One of the possibilities is that “a few members of the coalition will withdraw their support and call for an election, or form a different coalition within the current Knesset,” Mekelberg, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, told Anadolu.

Israeli academic Neve Gordon believes Netanyahu’s political future remains “uncertain” for now, but there are many forces that would like him to step down.

As along as Netanyahu’s War Cabinet remains intact, the better are his chances of survival, he said.

The War Cabinet formed after the launch of Israel’s offensive in Gaza includes Benny Gantz, the former military chief of staff and head of the National Unity party, and Gadi Eisenkot, a retired senior general.

Referring to them, Gordon, a professor of international law and human rights at Queen Mary University of London, said: “I think that so long as they continue to sit in the war Cabinet, his government is secure.”

If these two decide to resign, it is unclear whether Gantz’s party will stand with Netanyahu’s Likud or vote against him, he added.

“If they decide to resign from the War Cabinet, Gantz is now the head of the party that has the highest prediction in the next poll, and then it is not clear whether his (Netanyahu’s) coalition will stand, whether members of the Likud will vote against him,” said Gordon.

“So it’s very difficult to predict whether he will continue in government till the end of the term or not.”

‘Matter of months’

Neither Mekelberg nor Gordon believe that Netanyahu will resign voluntarily.

“The most unlikely possibility, knowing a little bit about Netanyahu, is that he is going to do the dignified thing and resign,” said Mekelberg.

About the premier being forced out of office, he said that could most likely be in “a matter of months.”

Netanyahu has very little support among the electorate in Israel, he added.

“Right now, he is not seen … as a kind of a leader that can lead a democracy, let alone someone that fashioned himself as Mr. Security,” said Mekelberg.

However, he said Netanyahu has been a “survivor” and right now he needs “to survive as prime minister for his political sake and also because of his corruption trial.”

“He believes, as do the people around him, that his best chance not to be convicted, not to even to let this court case come to its eventual conclusion, is by him staying on as prime minister indefinitely,” he added.

Gordon said Netanyahu has pushed through in the past despite wide resistance to his rule, but it is uncertain whether he can see out the current storm of “ongoing failures” and “corruption.”

With the contentious judicial overhaul having failed, “the noose around Netanyahu is slowly closing,” he said.

Buying time with war

These imminent threats are the reason why Netanyahu is adamant on extending his war on Gaza.

His latest statement to this effect came on Tuesday, with public broadcaster KAN reporting that he told Cabinet ministers that “it will take six months for the army to finish the third phase of the war.”

Netanyahu has a “vested interest in maintaining the war” as an end would mean an Israeli public that is demanding accountability, said Gordon.

“The minute the war ends – and this can be the war in Gaza, this can be the war in Lebanon, this can be a regional war – the minute all these wars end, the Israeli population would like to bring him to account,” he stressed.

For Gordon, there is a kind of strategic contradiction between ending the war, a cease-fire and Netanyahu’s “reign.”

Mekelberg also does not exclude this possibility, given that Netanyahu is an “opportunist.”

“For years now … it’s all about him getting off the hook in his corruption trial,” he said.

No impact on Gaza war

Whether Netanyahu stays or goes, both analysts believe Israel’s strategy against Gaza will not change.

“The idea that if Netanyahu will go … there will be a dramatic change on the ground, I think is false,” said Gordon.

It is not about who leads the Israeli government, but rather about the kind of regime that Israel has instituted, he explained.

“This regime is a regime, as human rights organizations have shown, of Jewish supremacy. It’s a regime that lives by the sword,” he said.

Mekelberg agreed and said that it is a “bit unrealistic” to expect that someone completely different than Netanyahu will replace him.

"Even if it’s someone like Benny Gantz … we are not talking about a sea change,” he said.

Peace with the Palestinians, he added, is also not something to be expected in the immediate future.

Relations with US

Regarding Netanyahu’s growing differences with the US, Gordon cited the example of the premier’s recent call with President Joe Biden.

Netanyahu was “zigzagging” while Biden demanded an end to the fighting, according to Gordon.

“Netanyahu said yes and then the next day said no,” he added.

For Gordon, it is clear that Netanyahu is against the establishment of a Palestinian state, saying that it goes against his fundamental ideology.

“He was trying to please or appease Biden for a moment, but he knows that his base will not allow that,” said the academic.

The EU has also demanded clarifications because if Netanyahu is so against the establishment of a Palestinian state, that would require a rethink of the EU approach, he said.

“I think this rethink is long overdue and I think much more external pressure needs to be exerted against Israel, so that Israel either creates a Palestinian state by its side or democratizes the system within,” he added.