JERUSALEM

Israel’s full-scale war in southern Lebanon is closer now than ever before amid escalating cross-border clashes with Hezbollah, an Israeli newspaper said on Tuesday.

The Jerusalem Post said that if the offensive did not take place in 4-6 weeks, it may be impossible to launch a large-scale offensive until spring 2025.

“Right now is the closest Israel has been to a full war with Hezbollah since October 7,” the newspaper said in an analysis.

The media outlet argued that it is now favorable to start a military operation in Lebanon before winter, which is “far more fierce” in mountainous Lebanon and difficult to manage than in Gaza.

“If more than 4-6 weeks pass without an operation, it may be impossible – or much harder – to carry out such an operation until spring 2025,” the newspaper said, citing sources.

“This would mean condemning the northern residents to another 6 months outside of their homes, something becoming increasingly untenable domestically in Israel,” it added.

Some 60,000 Israelis have fled their homes in northern Israel since the outbreak of cross-border fighting with Hezbollah in early October.

On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his American counterpart Lloyd Austin that the chance for a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah was running out.

The newspaper, however, said that the war between Israel and Hezbollah remains “uncertain” as it would be a “risky proposition” for Israel, Hezbollah, the US, and Iran.

“The US could be drawn into a regional war – or at least be seen as having failed to prevent a larger one – after a year of diplomacy, which could impact the presidential election race,” it added.

The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, has been mediating to reach a Gaza cease-fire and prisoner swap agreement between Israel and Hamas.

The Jerusalem Post said recent media reports about plans by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace Gallant with Gideon Sa’ar as defense minister aim “to have greater support for a major operation against Hezbollah.”

“This is the riskiest time in the North since October 7,” the newspaper commented.

On Monday, US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Israel for talks aimed at preventing a full-scale war between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah.

Tensions have mounted along the Lebanon-Israel border amid cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israeli forces as Tel Aviv presses ahead with an offensive against Gaza. The offensive has killed over 41,250 people since last October following a Hamas attack.

*Writing by Ahmed Asmar in Ankara