JERUSALEM

Israeli military analyst Amos Harel has dismissed a "total victory" for Tel Aviv in the Gaza war, arguing that such assertions, promoted by supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are contrary to the ground reality.

Harel, a military affairs analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, in his write-up published on Friday, stated, “One has to be a blind follower who has shed all vestiges of doubt and criticism to believe that Israel actually defeated Hamas.”

“The organization sustained a tremendous military blow, but it certainly did not surrender,” he noted, adding that “that's not consistent with Netanyahu's declarations about the war's goals, or with his promises in its course.”

US mediation efforts

Harel also touched on the role of the US in the region, highlighting that the administration of President Donald Trump is pushing for the full implementation of a multi-phase ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas. This contrasts with Netanyahu’s preference to focus solely on the initial phase.

The ceasefire, which began on Jan. 19, is set to last for 42 days in its first stage, with negotiations ongoing for subsequent phases under the mediation of Egypt, Qatar, and the US.

According to Harel, “The visit to the region by Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump's special Mideast Envoy, attested to the mood of the administration.

“Washington views the first phase of the deal as a necessary point of transition to the second phase, which in itself is preparation for the bigger deal.

"Washington views the first phase of the deal as a necessary point of transition to the second phase, which in itself is preparation for the bigger deal: huge US-Saudi contracts accompanied by normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem."

He added that “Witkoff was here to ensure that Israel continues on the track laid out by Trump,” with key details expected to be discussed next week in a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in Washington. This meeting, Harel suggested, holds significant weight.

Challenges to Gaza deportation plans

Harel also addressed Trump’s controversial suggestion of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring countries, highlighting the practical difficulties in implementing such a proposal.

The idea is partly aimed at maintaining Netanyahu’s coalition with the far right. However, he noted that the chances of executing such a plan are slim.

“Washington's bargaining power in the Middle East on emigration doesn't resemble what it's capable of achieving with its neighbors in Latin America,” said the analyst.

“Trump appears to be looking at Gaza like the real estate entrepreneur he used to be. To resettle the destroyed area, an evacuation-construction project is needed,” he explained.

Harel pointed out that while these proposals align with the long-standing aspirations of Israel’s right-wing to remove Palestinians from the equation, they are likely to face strong resistance.

"Such schemes will inevitably encounter Palestinian opposition, backed by Arab states. At this moment, it is difficult to imagine any Arab leader endorsing Trump’s relocation plan for Gaza," he concluded.

On Jan. 25, Trump publicly proposed relocating Gaza’s Palestinian population to nearby countries like Egypt and Jordan. His suggestion has been widely rejected by several countries, including Jordan, Iraq, France, Germany, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the UN.