By Burcu Arik
ISTANBUL
Turkish academics and researchers gathered for a conference in Istanbul on Wednesday to evaluate all aspects of the ongoing multi-sided armed conflict in Syria.
The conference, named "Political Settlement in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities", discussed many issues linked to Turkey's foreign policy regarding Syria and the Iran-Russia involvement in the Syrian civil war.
Speaking at the conference, Prof. Mehmet Akif Okur of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Yildiz Technical University said the nature of the conflict has now changed since Syria today is a place of multiple wars, not just a civil war.
"When we look to the nature of civil wars if there is an equilibrium between the forces fighting against each other these conflicts can go as long as the parties consume their internal resources.
"But if outside forces start to intervene by helping sides, then this is a significant factor which can increase the time and duration of the civil war; the Syrian conflict has passed all of these stages," Okur said.
He said Syria was an internal conflict, but outside powers intervened in it by helping either the rebels, or the opposition or the regime, and now it is at the third level, which means the real actors of the Syrian civil war have nearly consumed their internal resources and outside actors have become the real and major players in the Syrian war.
"So, this is a critical issue. Control of the conflict is not in the hands of the local actors. And another important aspect of Syrian war is that there are multiple wars.
"Multiple groups conflicting with each other. We saw the war against Daesh and we see also a war of Turkey against the PYD, the Syrian PKK, and we also see the Israeli incursion into Syrian territory, attacking Hezbollah, the Syrian regime."
Afrin, al-Bab operations
Okur said Turkey has been part of the conflict since the beginning when it backed the opposition and participated as a member of the international coalition, but some critical conjunctures have changed for Turkey, which is the rise of YPG, the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terror group.
"YPG has become a significant force with the help of the U.S. This was an important turning point in the eyes of Turkey to look and approach the Syrian war," he said as referred to Turkey's "significant" military operation in Syria's Afrin.
"Because at this point the Syrian crisis has become a national security problem of Turkey. And Turkey has prioritized its threat perceptions related to Syria," the professor said.
With the Afrin operation, Okur said Turkey showed it could use force against the PKK terror group and also go against the will of U.S.
"This is a critical turning point and this was the greatest crisis in the relations between Turkey and the U.S.," he said.
On Jan. 20, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch to clear YPG/PKK-Daesh terrorists from Afrin.
According to the Turkish General Staff, the operation aims to establish security and stability along Turkey’s borders and the region as well as to protect Syrians from terrorist oppression and cruelty.
The operation is being carried out under the framework of Turkey's rights based on international law, UN Security Council resolutions, its self-defense rights under the UN charter and respect for Syria's territorial integrity, it said.
The military also said only terror targets are being destroyed and that "utmost care" is being taken to avoid harming civilians.
Okur said Afrin operation was also different from the previous operation, Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria's al-Bab region.
"Because at that time, there was a common enemy Daesh, but this time a terrorist group that Turkey calls 'my enemy’ is what the U.S. says 'is my ally'. This [Afrin operation] is important militarily and politically."
Russia, Iran involvement
The academics and researchers also touched on the involvement of Russia and Iran in the Syrian war, shifting alliances, Astana and Sochi talks.
Associate Prof. Mesut Ozcan, who is a director at the Diplomacy Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, said Russia is an important actor in the conflict, and Russia has had an interest in the Middle East for a long time.
According to Ozcan, Russia intervened in the war in Syria because the regime was collapsing and opposition groups were advancing despite Iranian presence.
He said although Russia’s military intervention in Syria caused disagreements and challenges between Ankara and Moscow, consultation between the two countries were continuing.
Referring to the Sochi and Astana talks, Ozcan said here the aim of Russia is to have this process under its own control.
"Turkey and Russia started to talk on the Syrian issue beginning in 2015. From the Turkish point of view, without taking into account the Russian presence there, without taking into account Russian influence on the Syrian regime, we cannot have a solution.”
Ozcan said although Russia and Iran were supporting the Assad regime, they also have different priorities, and Russia is much pro and much eager to the solution because it is very costly. "They mostly have air operations in Syria but still it is costing them.”
According to Prof. Ahmet Uysal, director of the Ankara-based think tank Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), Iran is the "spoiler" actually in the Syrian conflict and wants to revert Syria to its pre-2011 settings.
"In my opinion, Iran does not have a plan for the future of Syria since they want to press a reset button only. They want to act like nothing happened. They want to keep it like as if nothing happened. But we cannot pretend as if nothing happened.”
Uysal said Iran valued Syrian regime.
"They will not leave Syria. They value it strategically and ideologically. Iran thinks if it loses Syria it will lose Lebanon, Iraq, so they are investing a lot to keep their influence in Syria," he added.
