BEIRUT, Lebanon 

The Lebanese parliament is set to reconvene on Thursday to tackle the nation’s prolonged presidential vacancy issue, a political crisis that has left the country without a head of state for over two years.

After President Michel Aoun's term ended on Oct. 31, 2022, Lebanon’s parliament failed to elect a new president during 12 sessions.

The presidential seat has remained vacant for over two years, during which Lebanon’s political and security landscape has been significantly impacted by escalating conflicts with Israel.

Tensions peaked when clashes between Hezbollah and Israel in October 2023 escalated into full-scale Israeli attacks and ground invasions along the border in September 2024.

Following the cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel on Nov. 28, 2024, Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled the 13th session for Jan. 9.

Despite positive messages from the Lebanese political factions about electing a president in this session, doubts remain due to the parliament’s history of indecision.

The last session aimed at electing a president was held on June 14, 2023, before the clashes between Hezbollah and Israel began.

Former President Michel Aoun himself was elected in 2016 only after 46 parliamentary sessions.

According to the Lebanese Constitution, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker a Shia Muslim.

- Crowded list of candidates

Numerous candidates are being considered for the presidency, including Army Commander Joseph Aoun, Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh, Deputy Director General of General Security Maj. Gen. Elias al-Baysari, former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, former Communications Minister Jean-Louis Cardahi, banker and executive Samir Assaf, and MPs Neemat Frem and Ibrahim Kanaan.

Although Joseph Aoun is seen as a leading candidate, his presidency would require a constitutional amendment.

The initial parliamentary session for electing a president requires a candidate to secure 86 votes—the same number needed for constitutional amendments—which presents a major hurdle.

The "Democratic Gathering" bloc, led by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, which holds eight seats, supports Joseph Aoun’s candidacy.

However, Shia factions, including Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, oppose his nomination.

Meanwhile, parts of the opposition and nearly half of the Sunni MPs, who hold 27 seats, favor Joseph Aoun as president.

The Free Patriotic Movement, led by Gebran Bassil and holding 13 seats, also opposes Aoun. Separately, the Shia bloc, including Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, continues to back Sleiman Frangieh of the Marada Movement.

The possibility of failing to elect a new president in Thursday’s session remains high.

- Shia bloc’s stance could be decisive

Political analyst George Akouri told Anadolu that the outcome of the session is uncertain.

“The most prominent candidate is Joseph Aoun. However, the requirement to secure 86 votes—also the number required for constitutional amendments—is a major hurdle,” Akouri said.

Pointing to the Shia bloc, Akouri noted that its support could help Joseph Aoun reach the 86-vote threshold.

He explained that Aoun could counter opposition from groups like the Lebanese Forces Party if he secures support from the Shia factions, the Jumblatt family (a Druze political dynasty), and centrist MPs.

“This session’s fate depends on the Shia bloc’s stance, as the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces Party will not vote for Aoun,” he stated, adding: “These groups operate outside his sphere of influence.”

He also emphasized that other candidates would also struggle to reach the 86-vote threshold.

Political analyst Mohammed Hamiyeh further highlighted the ongoing discussions among political factions but noted there were no clear indicators about the session’s outcome.

“Most political factions have yet to decide on the presidential election,” he said.

“Additionally, there is significant international pressure—primarily from the US, Saudi Arabia, France, and Qatar—to elect a president,” he noted.

He pointed out that political factions need more time to reach consensus, adding that opposition parties currently hold divergent views.

If the opposition fails to agree on a single candidate, they may continue supporting Jihad Azour, who previously secured 59 votes in earlier sessions.

Hamiyeh also noted the Shia bloc’s firm support for Frangieh’s candidacy while suggesting that alternative candidates might be considered if the stalemate continues.

He underscored that constitutional amendment requirements might diminish Joseph Aoun’s chances, even with international backing.

“The uncertainty surrounding the session remains high,” he stressed, mentioning: “The final hours will be critical, and a surprising outcome cannot be ruled out.”

- ‘Unlikely’ to elect new president

“So far, it seems unlikely that a president will be elected in Thursday’s session,” Hamiyeh said, highlighting: “However, it could happen in future sessions, as Speaker Berri is likely to continue calling for them.”

“With further discussions, the political atmosphere may mature,” he added.

Hamiyeh warned of the risks posed by the prolonged presidential vacuum, noting that it could increase tensions in domestic politics and even impact the implementation of the cease-fire agreement with Israel.

The Lebanese parliament comprises the following: the Lebanese Forces Party holds 18 seats, the Free Patriotic Movement has 13, and the Shia bloc, consisting of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, holds 31 seats.

Civil society members occupy 10 seats, the Progressive Socialist Party has 8, the Lebanese Kataeb Party 4, the Marada Movement 4, the Renewal Movement 4, and the Armenian Tashnag Party 3.

Various political factions back 27 Sunni MPs.

To elect a president, a candidate must secure 86 votes in the first round of voting.

If this threshold is met, a simple majority of 65 votes is sufficient in subsequent rounds.

*Writing by Merve Berker in Ankara