JERUSALEM

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently has no intention of reaching an agreement with Hamas as his primary consideration is his political survival, which means that more and more Palestinians will continue to perish in the conflict, says an Israeli military analyst. 

Amos Harel stated in his article published on Friday in the daily Haaretz: “Practically speaking, there is almost no contradiction between the message to the Israeli public and the message to the Qataris, because the bottom line … is that he appears to have no intention of reaching an agreement at this time.”

Harel highlighted that Netanyahu's “major consideration is his political survival.”

Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have threatened to leave the government if an agreement involves withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border or releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages.

Such withdrawals are likely to result in the collapse of Netanyahu's government.

Harel noted that “as long as his partners in the far right threaten to bolt from the governing coalition if he strikes a deal that will include a massive release of Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, he has no government.”

“All the rest is secondary – including the lives of the remaining hostages,” he added, noting that: “More and more of them will continue to die” in the Gaza Strip.

Harel also pointed out that Netanyahu's strategy involves sidelining Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and the head of the military's missing and captive unit, Nitzan Alon, from decision-making on the war and future negotiations.

Despite heightened emotions and renewed protests in Israel following the recovery of six hostages' bodies in Rafah, Harel considers it “unlikely” that Netanyahu “feels especially threatened.”

He argued: “The coalition looks quite stable, an alliance of vested interests among cynics who are plundering the public coffers; the protest movement hasn't yet found a way to jolt the political arena.”

Harel added that the “Biden administration can't figure out how to force a deal on Netanyahu.”

He relayed that senior military officials believe, without naming them, "We will have no difficulty returning after six weeks.

“Certainly if it will enable us to rescue from captivity 20 to 30 of our people and maybe to settle matters in the north, at least temporarily.”

According to Harel, "Military sources also admit that Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the forever war in Gaza is leaving the forces without a lot of clear missions.”

For months, the US, Qatar, and Egypt have been trying to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas to ensure a prisoner exchange and a cease-fire and allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. But mediation efforts have been stalled due to Netanyahu’s refusal to meet Hamas’ demands to stop the war.

Israel has continued its brutal offensive on the Gaza Strip since an Oct. 7 Hamas attack despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire.

Nearly 40,900 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have since been killed and over 94,000 others injured, according to local health authorities.

An ongoing blockade of the enclave has led to severe shortages of food, clean water, and medicine, leaving much of the region in ruins.

Israel faces accusations of genocide for its actions in Gaza at the International Court of Justice.

* Writing by Ikram Kouachi