The author is a geostrategic analyst and freelance columnist on international affairs.

ISTANBUL

“When I went to the West Bank earlier this year, I met Palestinians whose communities have suffered horrific violence at the hands of Israeli settlers. The inaction of the Israeli government has allowed an environment of impunity to flourish where settler violence has been allowed to increase unchecked.” These were the words of British Foreign Secretary David Lammy last week as he announced sanctions against seven organizations that support illegal Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank. But notably, Lammy stopped short of penalizing two extremist ministers serving in Israel's government, a move his Tory predecessor David Cameron had been planning during his tenure as foreign secretary in the government of former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

What is driving this shift?

Cameron, who had served as prime minister earlier in 2010-2016, recently revealed to the media that, in his last days in government, he had been preparing sanctions against Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. His reasoning? Cameron branded the two men "extremists" and claimed sanctions could have pressured Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu to comply with international law. A few weeks ago, it was hard to imagine a UK government ever sanctioning a minister of an ally, especially one as closely tied to Britain as Israel.

For years, Israel has been shielded from such action. But, it seems, times are changing. This is the third episode of financial and other sanctions against certain elements of the West Bank settler community by the UK government. Sanctioning settlers is one thing, but targeting government ministers? That’s a whole new ballgame.

What’s driving this shift? Look no further than the troubling words and actions of the two aforementioned Israeli ministers. Ben-Gvir has repeatedly expressed his belief that Jewish Israeli rights override Arab human rights, and his comments on why security forces should kill rather than capture enemies have sparked outrage both in Israel and abroad. Meanwhile, Smotrich’s stance that starving 2 million people in Gaza is "moral" until Israeli hostages are returned has also drawn widespread condemnation. Even UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called his words "abhorrent."

A dilemma the West can no longer ignore

The UK is facing a dilemma it can ignore no longer: How do you confront a staunch ally who is heading down a dangerous road while still being ready to defend them in a crisis? Britain is not alone in this predicament. Western Europe, too, is beginning to grapple with this uncomfortable question. The shield around Israel seems to be cracking, and the implications could be far-reaching. French President Emmanuel Macron has already pointed to stopping weapons supplies to Israel as a means of supporting the peace process there.

The aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks has unfolded into a protracted and devastating conflict, marked by Israel’s forceful reprisals. Civilian casualties have crossed the 50,000 mark and millions have been displaced, yet Israel’s long-term strategy remains elusive. The murder of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was important for Israel, but its broader goal of neutralizing Hamas and Hezbollah is far from realization. As the war extends into Gaza and Lebanon, the question of Israel's next moves grows more pressing. Speculation is increasingly focused on figures like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, whose hardline visions are gaining attention. Their desired outcomes — a Gaza left in ruins and the expulsion of its Palestinian population, along with the annexation of the West Bank — are no longer fringe ideas. In fact, these goals appear to be seeping into the Netanyahu government’s strategic calculus. The prospect of a two-state solution, once the international community’s preferred pathway, seems ever more distant as Netanyahu’s government doubles down on its opposition to a Palestinian state.

Is this the Israel that its long-standing allies, including the UK, are still willing to stand behind? The country’s expansion into the West Bank and the imposition of sanctions on settlers suggest a growing discomfort among its supporters. The UK’s actions — financial penalties against elements of the settler community- may signal the beginning of a broader reckoning. Could wider sanctions on settlements and economic activity in the West Bank follow? And does this mean that Israel’s allies no longer believe that its current path guarantees security or a sustainable future for the region? The answer to this question is still vague, as the situation is quite fluid. The growing distance between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu is also indicative of this new development. It seems that the continued and relentless Israeli aggression in Gaza and the West Bank has eventually penetrated the public opinion in the West, leading to a subtle but significant recalibration in global leadership, which is being reflected in the recent public stances of Biden, Macron, and Starmer on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.