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Justyna Gotkowska is Deputy Director and Head of the Security and Defense Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW).
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a key phase. Russia, which is facing growing economic difficulties of its own, is stepping up both military pressure on Kyiv and aggressive hybrid operations against European countries, seeking to undermine support for Ukraine, weaken Western unity and end the war on its own terms. Poland, as a key supporter of Ukraine and a frontline NATO member, is particularly exposed to Russian malign actions. The challenge is not only to build up military capabilities and counter Russian hostile hybrid activities but also to maintain societal cohesion and resilience.
The war goes beyond capturing Ukrainian territory in Donbas. Moscow pursues much more wide-ranging goals, which are embedded in a far-reaching strategy that touches the essence of the European security order. Russian goals are best described in the two draft treaties presented by the Russian Foreign Ministry to the US and NATO in December 2021.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wishes to restore control over the post-Soviet space, in which domination over Ukraine is key. An independent Ukraine, with its economic potential and strategic location, democratic system of governance and ties with the West, is perceived by the Kremlin as a fundamental obstacle to its goals in domestic and foreign policy.
Russia also wants a privileged position with regard to its wider neighborhood. The Kremlin aims to create a buffer zone in Northern and Central Europe, limiting the ability of the countries in the Baltic Sea region to ensure their own security and economic interests. It wants to remove the NATO and US military presence and infrastructure from the territory of Poland and the Baltic states.
Moscow also aims to push the US military presence out of Europe – by demanding the withdrawal of not only US conventional forces but also American nuclear weapons from European military bases. All this would mean a Russia dominating Europe due to its military power, enhanced by its nuclear arsenal, and having veto power in European foreign, security and economic affairs.
These are not only Putin’s goals. This thinking has penetrated Russian elites. It is embedded in the conviction that the world has entered an era of strategic competition. Russia, together with China, seeks to counter the extension of American power and sees an opportunity to (re)create spheres of political, economic and military influence. Hence, even if the war in Ukraine ends or even if Putin ceases to lead the country, Europe will be facing an aggressive Russia.
The fifth year of Russia's aggression against Ukraine is nearing its end. Moscow is not able to break Ukrainian resistance on the frontline and has not even been able to capture the whole of Donbas. The consequences of the Russian invasion are increasingly felt on the home front. Western economic sanctions are impacting the Russian economy, which has entered a period of stagnation, with rising inflation and problems with state finances. The redistribution of resources within the Russian elites has already started, with some losing their property. Ukraine's retaliation against Russian energy infrastructure impacts the lives of ordinary Russians.
Hence, Putin is also fighting against time. He has increased pressure on Ukraine, aiming to break the resistance of society and political elites in Kyiv. The air attacks involving hundreds of drones mixed with cruise and ballistic missiles are targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The goal is to make the biggest Ukrainian cities uninhabitable this winter.
The mounting Russian pressure on Ukraine is combined with an increase in hybrid warfare against Europe, especially against countries that are key in supporting Kyiv. Disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage and (attempted) attacks on critical infrastructure (pipelines, cables, energy grids, communication facilities) and on defense industrial facilities, as well as intrusions of drones and cruise missiles into NATO airspace, are all aimed at convincing Europeans that it is not worth supporting Ukraine and that it is better to end the war quickly and on Russian terms.
In this context, Poland is under Russian pressure. In recent months, several instances of arson, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and espionage commissioned by the Russian special services have taken place in Poland. Furthermore, a Russian cruise missile entered Polish airspace and exploded in south-eastern Poland. Russia also seeks to cut Ukraine off from civilian and military transport coming through Poland and has started attacking railway and road infrastructure on Ukrainian territory, close to the Polish-Ukrainian border.
The intensification of Russian aggressive actions against Poland aims to increase concerns about the ongoing war among the Polish elites and society and to fuel fears of being dragged into the war. Russia wants Poles to question the need for continued European support for Ukraine. It wants to unsettle public opinion, increase polarization and hamper Polish decision-making with regard to shaping the Western strategy on Russia.
Russian actions have an impact on Polish public opinion, even if it is unclear to what extent. Polish society has become highly sensitive to any kind of suspected Russian aggressive activity. Russia has also fueled existing controversies in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Russian disinformation about Ukrainians committing crimes in Poland is spreading quickly, as is disinformation about alleged actions by Kyiv aimed at drawing Poland into the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The change in public mood is most visible at the political level. The Confederation of the Polish Crown (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, KKP) polled at approximately 8%–11% nationally in October 2026. This represents a substantial increase compared to its previous support levels. The party opposes Polish military assistance to Ukraine and criticizes sanctions imposed on Russia. Its representatives argue that Poland should prioritize its own national interests and avoid actions that could draw the country into a direct military confrontation with Russia. The party advocates a fundamental shift in Poland’s policy towards Moscow and calls for the normalization of Polish-Russian political and economic relations.
Polish authorities have been developing responses to various Russian malign activities. As a country that has been among the top three European states exposed to cyberattacks, Poland has strengthened its cyber defenses in the civilian and military areas. Warsaw is rethinking its approach to the protection of critical infrastructure nationally and in cooperation with other Baltic Sea countries, while also fortifying its border with Belarus in order to defend against illegal migration flows steered by the Russian and Belarusian secret services. Furthermore, the country is developing military capabilities to detect and counter the intrusion of Russian drones and cruise missiles into Polish airspace and threats in the maritime domain, collaborating successfully with NATO allies to counter such threats. Warsaw is also fortifying its border crossings in anticipation of further Russian attacks on the transportation routes linking Poland and Ukraine.
Poland has also been developing its civilian defense system, albeit with some difficulties. It has begun placing greater emphasis on public guidance, emergency planning and the responsibilities of citizens during crises. Poles are encouraged to keep basic emergency supplies, know how to respond to official warnings, identify reliable sources of information, maintain family emergency plans and understand local evacuation procedures. At the same time, public understanding of what preparedness entails—and what individuals can realistically do—remains uneven.
In September this year, the decision was made to set up the Centre for Countering Disinformation at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, with the aim of increasing information-sharing among government institutions, improving threat analysis and coordinating government communication during crises, particularly in response to campaigns attributed to Russia and Belarus.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has transformed Poland’s security environment and impacted society and domestic politics. As a key supporter of Ukraine and a frontline NATO member, Poland has faced increased levels of Russian hybrid operations, some involving military means. The war has accelerated the modernization of the Polish military, increased defense spending and reinforced Poland's role on NATO’s eastern flank. At the same time, it has highlighted the need to protect critical infrastructure, strengthen national resilience and fight disinformation—a difficult interagency process that is ongoing.
Poland is currently bracing itself for further Russian aggressive actions in line with the new Russian strategy towards Ukraine and Europe. This has been clearly communicated by the Polish prime minister and other officials and has also been voiced by other European allies, who likewise fear more offensive actions by Russia against their own populations and infrastructure.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.
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