• As a country that seeks stability and peace in its region, Türkiye can play a pivotal role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war

The author is a professor of international relations.

ISTANBUL

In 2023, the number of conflicts worldwide increased to 59, the highest recorded since data collection began in 1946. US President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the November presidential election raised the possibility of ending at least some of these conflicts. Ending wars was a central commitment of Trump’s election campaign. Americans cast their votes for Trump because they do not want to spend their taxes in these endless wars anymore. While cutting financial aid to war-torn countries could help, the new US administration may need a more comprehensive approach. As Trump pursues his policy to end wars, he may need partners and facilitators to share the burden.

Türkiye, as a country that seeks stability and peace in its region, can play a pivotal role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Türkiye’s readiness, willingness, and capability as a unique player in the international system, with its complex interrelations, make its role in preventing and resolving crises invaluable.

Türkiye's diplomatic efforts in Russia-Ukraine war

Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, Türkiye has worked to keep dialogue open through regular meetings and calls at the leadership level, while facilitating mediations. These diplomatic efforts of Türkiye included both initiatives and deals for the opening of humanitarian corridors and the prisoner swaps between Moscow and Kyiv. As a part of this proactive diplomacy, the prisoner exchange between the US and Russia was facilitated by Türkiye in August 2024 during the war in Ukraine. Moreover, active diplomacy and mediation efforts of Türkiye bore the fruit when the grain deal was signed. Türkiye thus made a significant contribution in providing food security by engaging in talks with Russia and Ukraine and convincing them to establish a safe shipping corridor for the transportation of Ukranian grains to world markets.

Furthermore, Türkiye demonstrated its ability to act as both a security provider and mediator for the Euro-Atlantic alliance in the Balkans. Russia’s war on Ukraine is not the only example of Moscow's effort to thwart NATO expansion. Russia tried to prevent some Balkan countries from joining NATO. Some Balkan countries, especially non-NATO Balkan countries, are more vulnerable to Russian meddling. There are significant risks, particularly for states embroiled in ethno-national disputes. Türkiye is an important player in the Balkans due to its ability to talk all sides in disagreement. Türkiye played an important role in preventing such crises that broke out in the past before they turned into a regional conflict in the Balkans.

The need for a strategic facilitator

No doubt that Washington needs to end the war in Ukraine and they might need a facilitator in this process, as the conflict’s escalation poses a nuclear threat. Russia announced that the Kremlin had updated its nuclear doctrine by lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks to Russian territory. This announcement came after the Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use US missiles on targets in Russian territory. When Moscow and Kyiv signed Budapest Memorandum in 1994, Russia committed to respecting the independence, sovereignty, and existing borders of Ukraine in exchange for Kyiv giving up its nuclear arsenal. Actually, the Budapest Memorandum was first breached by Russia in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. This came to another level since 2022, when Russia invaded the eastern part of Ukraine. Now, we are facing a nuclear threat explicitly stated by Russia. The Biden administration's policy allowing Ukraine to use US missiles in Russia, coupled with the Kremlin's subsequent decision to revise its nuclear doctrine, complicates Trump's goal of ending this war. It is evident that new commitments and assurances are needed for Ukraine's security. Also, there is an urgent need for de-escalation and a renewed peace process.

In this complicated and difficult process, the new US administration needs allies that can facilitate the peace process by convincing the sides by providing an honorable peace and sustainable security. The guiding philosophy of Turkish foreign policy is “peace at home, peace in the world” which was proclaimed by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Republic of Türkiye. Ankara has already played a pioneering role in raising awareness and creating capacity for mediation in its neighborhood and beyond. Türkiye, along with Finland, has also spearheaded the “Mediation for Peace” initiative at the UN since 2010 and the “Group of Friends Mediation” at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) since 2014. To this end, the country has actively worked in recent years for the resolution of many conflicts in the world. The most recent example is the agreement reached in Ankara-mediated peace talks between Somalia and Ethiopia to resolve the conflict between two nations.

Türkiye's efforts in facilitating the Istanbul Agreement in 2022 demonstrated its willingness, capability, and effectiveness in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This underscores the need to consider US-Türkiye cooperation in ending the war in Ukraine and achieving an honorable peace and sustainable security in the Black Sea region.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.