- Antalya Diplomacy Forum brought people together and allowed for Europeans, Asians, Latin Americans and Africans to reclaim something which is increasingly monopolized by US-China rivalry, the freedom to choose trade partners and promote de-fragmentation

-The author is the director of the European Neighbourhood Council (ENC).

ISTANBUL

The world is in turmoil. Nations are grappling with rising protectionism and growing economic uncertainty. The United States is focusing its attention entirely on the perceived "China threat." Supply chains are being dismantled, and the multilateral system -- such as the United Nations -- is losing relevance. Democracies are shrinking, while strongman-politics and realism are in full swing. Trump is now pressuring the world, including NATO allies and the EU, to follow "America First" blindly. But what exactly does America want from the world?

What is Trump's plan?

China has become too economically big and technologically strong, which poses a risk for Washington. Simply put, Beijing is now “too big a rival,” and the US finds itself increasingly dependent on its Asian competitor. Trump wants both to spend less (reducing the US budget deficit), while isolating China in terms of military capacity, technology and trade surplus. That is why Trump imposes tariffs and applies pressure on multiple countries simultaneously. It is a negotiation tactic. He punishes states, then brings them to the bargaining table on his terms, one by one. During these negotiations, he asks countries to stop trading with China, while buying primarily American gas or fossil fuel from US-friendly countries (e.g. Saudi Arabia). He requests that countries abandon ESGs (environment, labor and social standards) while blackmailing them into opening their markets to American tech sectors and unregulated food or industrial products. Trump offers technology transfer in return for a selection of well-behaved allies under the condition that they “buy American defense.” His mission: eliminating the possibility of independent-minded countries that pose an alternative to China and America, like for example Türkiye, the European Union, Brazil and India. Being “non-aligned” or having an independent foreign and security policy is perceived as a direct threat to Trump's view of a bipolar world. Why? Because it goes against his dualistic vision of a world where you are either "with him or against him."

Having to choose a side -- between America and China -- will not only be disastrous for countries in Africa and Asia whom deeply depend on Beijing for trade. It also extremely difficult for Türkiye and EU countries, including France, Spain, Germany, and Poland. As Trump says, the only one it benefits is “America First.”

Let’s take a few examples: Costly natural gas from America will depress European industrial production, both in the EU and Türkiye. Forcing Europeans to abandon Chinese trade is the equivalent of removing the third-largest trading partner from the continent, meaning €700+ billion. That directly impacts price (e.g. making products more expensive) while making industrial competitive advantages more difficult. It is also unsustainable to imagine that EU and Türkiye increase high-priced American natural gas, while simply abandoning renewable autonomous energy sources, another demand Trump pushes.

Antalya Diplomacy Forum as an alternative

‘Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World’ is the title of this year’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum. It brought people together and allowed for Europeans, Asians, Latin Americans, and Africans to reclaim something which is increasingly monopolized by US-China rivalry, namely the agency of the freedom to choose trade partners and promote de-fragmentation.

Behind the scenes, Turkish diplomats were actively running around and engaging with dozens of nationalities from across the world. From trade routes and infrastructure to tariffs and connectivity, the Forum’s importance cannot be overstated at a time in which most countries around the world are saying: “Give us an alternative please. We don’t want to choose between America and China.” There are 195 countries in the world, it is neither economical nor fair that a rivalry between two (US-China) gets to decide the business for everyone else. The Antalya Diplomacy Forum stands as a rare platform where nations can resist the pressures of polarization and reclaim their voice in a world increasingly forced into binaries.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.