• Türkiye’s ability to facilitate and integrate these new supply routes strengthens its position as key transit, trading hub

The author is an energy fellow at Jamestown Foundation, Gulf State Analytics and Eurasia Democratic Security Network (EDSN).

ISTANBUL

Europe has long sought access to Turkmen gas, with every major pipeline initiative—whether the failed Nabucco project or the successful Southern Gas Corridor—ultimately envisioning a route for Turkmenistan’s vast reserves to reach European markets. Yet, for decades, Turkmenistan, a country with one of the largest gas reserves in the world, had only one export path to the west: via Russia. The recent agreement between Türkiye and Turkmenistan has altered this dynamic. For the first time, Turkmen gas is set to flow to Europe, albeit in limited volumes.

While Turkmenistan exports approximately 34.09 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually to China, the recent agreement with Türkiye involves a comparatively modest volume of 1.5 to 2 bcm per year. However, competition in the Chinese market is intensifying. Russia, having lost its traditional European customers due to geopolitical tensions, is redirecting its natural gas exports toward China. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan has halted its gas exports via Russia. In this context, Türkiye has seized the opportunity to help Turkmenistan diversify its export destinations.

The swap-based transit of Turkmen gas through Iran strategically enhances Türkiye’s energy portfolio, which is highly import-dependent. This move reinforces Türkiye’s supply security while further diversifying its natural gas sources. This approach holds particular significance as it provides Türkiye with an additional pipeline-based cost-competitive supply that is independent of Russian gas, complementing its existing diversification efforts. With this addition, Türkiye now imports pipeline gas from four different countries—Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan—a statistic that few other nations can match. Even major energy consumers like China, Germany (before the Ukraine war), and Italy rely on three or fewer pipeline suppliers.

• Russia (via Blue Stream & TurkStream)
• Azerbaijan (via TANAP)
• Iran (via Tabriz–Ankara pipeline)
• Turkmenistan (via Iran, starting 2025)

Türkiye is uniquely positioned to emerge as a pivotal energy trading hub in the Black Sea–Eastern Mediterranean region, leveraging its strategic geography and proactive energy policies. Unlike many landlocked countries in the region, Türkiye enjoys direct access to global maritime trade routes, an advantage it has effectively capitalized on through a robust LNG import strategy, including the deployment of Floating LNG (FLNG) terminals.

New energy routes

Beyond geography, Türkiye serves as the critical bridge between energy-rich nations to the east and the energy-hungry European market. The recent natural gas agreement with Turkmenistan is particularly significant in this context, aligning with the broader shift in Europe’s natural gas production landscape. Traditionally concentrated in Northwestern Europe (the North Sea, the Netherlands, and Norway), production is gradually pivoting toward emerging gas hubs in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. From this perspective, Türkiye’s ability to facilitate and integrate these new supply routes strengthens its position as a key transit and trading hub.

However, to fully realize this potential, further liberalization of Türkiye’s natural gas market remains essential—an area in which the state has been making progress, alongside efforts to expand natural gas storage capacity. Additionally, Türkiye has made significant investments in renewable energy, expanding its wind and solar power infrastructure. The Akkuyu nuclear power plant, set to become operational in the near future, will further diversify Türkiye’s energy mix. This will enhance domestic energy security while freeing up more natural gas for export to Europe.

Collectively, these developments underscore Türkiye’s growing influence as a regional energy hub, positioning it at the center of an evolving energy landscape. Additional gas volumes help enhance liquidity in Türkiye’s natural gas market, potentially moderating domestic prices. However, as natural gas increasingly evolves into a globally traded commodity, domestic pricing is influenced by a broader set of factors, including international market dynamics, geopolitical developments, and fluctuations in supply and demand across key trading hubs. While increased supply enhances market flexibility, external pressures may still shape Türkiye’s domestic pricing landscape.

Over the years, Türkiye has actively pursued a multifaceted energy diversification strategy, including securing long-term LNG contracts, deploying Floating LNG (FLNG) terminals along its coastline, and now integrating a new pipeline supply route into its energy matrix. By leveraging Turkmen gas via Iran, Türkiye enhances its negotiating leverage in gas imports, and strengthens its role as a regional energy hub, bridging supply between the Caspian region and European markets.

In the event that sanctions against Russia are lifted and Russian gas exports to Europe resume, the additional volumes supplied through Türkiye and other alternative routes may also serve to enhance Europe's negotiating position. This diversification of supply sources would empower European nations to secure more favorable terms in their gas agreements with Russia, leveraging the increased competition to negotiate better prices.

Although the Turkmenistan-Türkiye gas agreement supplies only modest volumes, its strategic significance lies in strengthening Europe’s energy diversification. This development not only strengthens Türkiye's position as a key energy transit hub but also provides European nations with greater leverage in future energy negotiations, particularly if Russian gas supplies are reinstated.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.