OPINION - Vance’s speech at Munich hints at US policy change toward the Balkans

• Under Trump’s 2nd term, Aleksandar Vucic might find more leeway to stir up troubles in Kosovo as a way to divert attention from domestic authoritarianism.

The author is assistant professor of political science at Ibn Haldun University.

ISTANBUL

What Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic needs to come to terms with is the fact that the narrative of “color revolutions” may no longer carry the same weight in a world where external influence is increasingly normalized.

US Vice President JD Vance stunned everyone with his speech during the Munich Security Conference last Friday. He was widely expected to weigh in on the war in Ukraine and on a potential deal to end that war as had just been announced by the Donald Trump administration. Instead, Vance dedicated his entire speech to lecturing Europeans on democracy and free speech, without mentioning the Ukraine war even once.

“The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within — the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values,” Vance asserted, arguing that free speech is, allegedly, increasingly under threat across the continent.

He went on to further “advise” Europeans that they should come to terms with external influences on their electoral process and not consider it to be interference any more. As he bluntly put it, “Speaking up and expressing opinions isn’t election interference, even when people express views outside your own country, and even when those people are very influential. And trust me, I say this with all humor — if American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk.”

To be sure, these comments border on mocking and smack of double standards, not least because they come from the deputy of a leader who has not and still does not recognize the popular legitimacy of the 2020 US presidential elections, despite winning a strong popular mandate four years later. Nevertheless, Vance’s remarks are significant as they signal a fundamental shift in US policy toward Europe. They imply that European countries should do much more now to provide for their own security and manage the security competition among themselves. Stated differently in terms of International Relations (IR) terminology, the US will not be actively involved as before in dampening the baleful effects of anarchy in Europe.

Repercussions for the Balkans

This will undoubtedly have repercussions for that poor and corrupt corner of Europe known as the Balkans as well. Vance referred only to the example of Romania in his speech, denouncing the annulment of the December presidential election where a far-right candidate had made it to the second round (runoff).

We can mention other Balkan countries as well. For Kosovo, the change in US policy implied by Vance’s remarks means that any future government to emerge from the ongoing coalition talks should refrain from unilateral actions toward its Serbian minority and should instead fully coordinate its policies with the US, Türkiye and other Western backers of Kosovo’s independence. Otherwise, there is the real possibility that Serbia might infringe on Kosovo’s territorial integrity.

For the regime in Belgrade, on the other hand, the change in US policy might turn out to be a double-edged sword. Under US President Donald Trump’s second term, Aleksandar Vucic might find more leeway to stir up troubles in Kosovo as a way to divert attention from domestic authoritarianism.

At the same time, however, the Serbian opposition can take advantage of more open European and/or Western support to challenge Vucic’s regime because, as Vance put it, for influential external actors to speak up and express opinions is not considered to be election interference anymore. This might impact the ongoing mass student protests in Serbia that are now in their fourth month. In the latest counter-rally held by Vucic in Sremska Mitrovica on Feb. 15 (which marks Serbia’s Statehood Day), he ratcheted up the accusatory regime narrative that the student protests were supported by external forces seeking to weaken the Serbian state (not his regime) in a “color revolution,” pointing the finger to US governmental and non-governmental agencies like USAID and NED (National Endowment for Democracy).

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s playbook, Vucic is doubling down on the "color revolution" narrative, revealing that his greatest fear is, in fact, democracy in Serbia. However, what Vucic needs to come to terms with is the fact that the narrative of “color revolutions” might not carry weight as before in a world where any kind of external influence is now considered normal.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.