The author is a researcher and journalist focusing on conflict and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa, primarily related to the Gulf region.

ISTANBUL

US President Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine, marked by backing away from support for Ukraine and taking a more transactional approach to European allies, has raised concerns among longstanding US partners in the Asia-Pacific that they, too, could face a harsh reassessment of their strategic value.

As many expected, Trump hasn't hesitated to ramp up economic pressure on China, similar to his first term when he launched a trade war against Beijing in 2018. With Trump's second term underway, Beijing is another primary target, with Trump imposing an across-the-board 20% tariff on all Chinese imports by March. Yet Trump's additional sweeping tariffs announced on April 2 increased the cumulative tariffs on Chinese imports to 54% [1].

Trump's actions rattled not only China, but paradoxically also Washington's regional allies, who are crucial to countering Beijing’s assertiveness in the South and East China Seas. These nations also faced significant tariff increases on April 2. For example, Japan received a 24% tariff, South Korea 25%, and Taiwan as high as 34%. This clearly demonstrates Trump’s transactional, deal-making approach to foreign policy. The tariffs have certainly alarmed allies, with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba describing them as a “national crisis” that could hit Japan's export-driven economy [2], given its vast sales of automobiles, electronics, and machinery to the US. The tariffs are expected to slash nearly 1% of Tokyo's economy.

Beyond the tariffs, allies worry that Washington might step back from its long-standing security commitments. Trump's past remarks – criticizing [3] the US-Japan post-World War II security alliance as "unfair" and accusing South Korea of exploiting the US economically – have only fueled anxiety about America's long-term commitment to regional security. Additionally, some of his own allies in Washington are skeptical about multilateral agreements such as AUKUS, the security pact between the US, UK, and Australia, designed to counterbalance China's influence in the Asia-Pacific.  

Could Ukraine's fate repeat itself in Taiwan?

Meanwhile, Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint, with many fearing it may also suffer a similar fate to Ukraine, in terms of diminished US support in the face of a neighboring larger power. As with other regional partners, Trump previously criticized Washington's longstanding unconditional military support for Taiwan, arguing the island should do more to protect itself from a possible Chinese invasion, beyond relying on the US.

In July 2024, he declared [4] in an interview "I think Taiwan should pay us for defense," while he further emphasized this viewpoint in October 2024, arguing that Taiwan should allocate a vast 10% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending. Many have warned this rhetoric could embolden China's long-standing ambition to invade the island. That being said, Trump's position on Taiwan has been anything but consistent. In February, his administration removed the longstanding statement that "we do not recognize Taiwan's independence" from the US State Department. That marks an overt shift in US policy, one that predictably provoked anger within Beijing.

Yet in Trump’s view, there are significant differences between Taiwan and Ukraine—primarily economic ones. Taiwan is the global hub of semiconductor manufacturing, producing the advanced chips that power AI and cutting-edge technology—sectors vital to US economic and military dominance. And in an appeal to Trump's business-like nature, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) pledged [5] on March 5 to invest $100 billion in the US, constructing five "cutting-edge" fabrication plants on American soil, including in the state of Arizona.

From Washington's perspective, this move is invaluable: it strengthens US control over the semiconductor supply chain, reducing reliance on East Asian hubs like Japan and South Korea. It also provides an advantage in Washington’s competition with China over semiconductor dominance.

Despite heavy tariffs on Taiwan, security cooperation and semiconductor collaboration between Washington and Taipei are likely to continue relatively smoothly, at least for now. This may ease fears that Trump would abandon Taiwan anytime soon. Former President Ma Ying-jeou accused Taiwan’s current government of effectively “selling TSMC” to Trump as a form of “protection fee.” This illustrates the transactional approach Trump is expected to adopt throughout the region.  

New normals under Trump

Given the uncertainty over Trump’s intentions, Washington's regional allies are likely to engage in discussions about enhancing their own defense capabilities, similar to ongoing debates in Europe. On March 22, the foreign ministers of Japan, China and South Korea convened [6] in Tokyo, to discuss cooperation and concerns over regional security, including from North Korea. The timing of that meeting, shortly after Trump’s initial tariff threats in March, suggests that Washington's unpredictability pushed Japan and South Korea to improve relations with Beijing as a form of strategic hedging.

Yet with China remaining as a primary US competitor, Washington will still look to contain Beijing, meaning Washington's security support for Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines likely won't disappear. Instead, we could expect to see more demands from Washington to keep individual nations within its military umbrella, such as “paying their fair share” as Trump put it. Of course, it's notoriously difficult to be sure with Trump. However, one thing is certain: business as usual is off the table. America's allies are bracing for a more transactional, less predictable relationship with Washington - one where past loyalty is no longer a guarantee of future security.  

[1] https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-raises-tariffs-on-china-to-54-overview-and-trade-implication

[2] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-tariffs-a-national-crisis-says-japanese-premier/3528556

[3] https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/trump-japan-security-pact-us-japan-treaty-history-explained-125031000508_1.html

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/17/donald-trump-taiwan-pay-us-defence-china-national-convention

[5] https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3210

[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-china-south-korea-meet-geopolitical-turning-point-history-2025-03-22/

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.