• Trump’s plan to ‘make the US an inward-looking and closed country’ means ‘the kind of relationship Japan had with the US will probably no longer be possible,’ says Japanese academic Saul Takahashi
• Japan is in ‘a difficult position’ as it needs a lot from the US, ranging from security to diplomatic support, says Jingdong Yuan of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
• Trump’s tariffs are ‘a great threat to the economic development of Japan’ and any potential trade deal hinges on how much investment Tokyo commits to the US, says Taiwan-based academic Chien-Yu Shih

ISTANBUL

When President Donald Trump unleashed his barrage of tariffs, upending global markets and fueling recession fears, one of his stated objectives was to get better trade deals from countries across the world.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” Trump said as he announced his “reciprocal tariffs” at an April 2 press conference.

The very last words of that comment – “friend and foe alike” – resonated particularly loudly across the Pacific in a country widely seen as one of Washington’s strongest allies: Japan.

Within days, a delegation from Tokyo landed in the US for one of the first face-to-face negotiations on trade since Trump’s tariff shock.

Trump himself attended one of the meetings with the Japanese team, which was led by Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s economic revitalization minister and a close aide to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

With the two sides expected to hold a second round of talks later this month, the messaging from either in the meantime has been a mix of optimism, caution, and a bit of defiance.

After his unexpected decision to attend discussions, Trump claimed there was “big progress,” while Ishiba said Tokyo was in no rush for a deal and does not want to “make one compromise after another just to conclude negotiations quickly.”

As the two longstanding allies navigate a potentially complex path ahead, analysts believe the outcome could redefine relations and the future of bilateral trade that stood at approximately $223 billion in 2023.

Trump has paused his tariffs for all countries, barring China, for 90 days, giving Tokyo time to strike a deal to avoid the 24% reciprocal duties he initially planned for Japanese imports.

Temporary respite aside, the “tariffs are a major blow for Japan,” said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy, while pointing out that there is also “no guarantee” that negotiations with the US would go smoothly.​​​​​​​

Jingdong Yuan, an expert on Japanese foreign policy, labelled Trump’s tariffs “madness,” but acknowledged their potential to hurt Japan.

“There is a lot that Japan needs from the US, from security to diplomatic support … so Japan is in a difficult position,” Jingdong, director of the China and Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told Anadolu.

Japan and the US have a mutual defense treaty under which the former hosts more than 50,000 American troops, which may be one of the areas Tokyo could use in negotiations for a deal, he said.

“One way is to reduce tariffs on US products such as agricultural items since Japan has been quite protective in this area, and provide additional financial contribution to supporting US troops or some arrangements of burden sharing,” he said.

For Tokyo, Washington’s support will also be crucial for possible future membership of the UN Security Council or in its territorial dispute with China, he added.

Impact of ‘inward-looking’ US

In terms of trade balance, Japan’s exports to the US were at $143 billion in 2023, while goods and services going the other way accounted for a much lower $80.2 billion.

Japanese academic Saul Takahashi said the notion of Tokyo “ripping the US off because of the trade deficit is a longstanding one” in American policy circles, but asserted that it “really lacks any kind of foundation.”

“Japan buys plenty of American services and good American products (such as American sportswear) sell very well here. If Americans ever manage to make good-quality cars that fit in narrow Japanese roads, they might sell well here too,” Takahashi, a professor at Osaka University, told Anadolu.

Criticizing the US for “trying to bully countries into submission,” he warned: “Such mafia-like tactics may bear some fruit in the immediate term, but in the mid- to long-term, countries once allied to the US will distance themselves from such an erratic, unreliable partner.”

Whether Japan takes that route remains “a big question,” he said, but pointed out that the country’s “political elite has, for decades, invested heavily in what can only be described as a subservient relationship to the US.”

Regarding the idea that Tokyo could pivot toward Beijing, Takahashi said Japanese politicians have “spent years blaming China for all of Japan’s economic and social ills,” making “any kind of serious partnership” a dim prospect.

However, he emphasized that Trump’s plan to “make the US an inward-looking and closed country” means that “the kind of relationship Japan has had with the US will probably no longer be possible.”

“Like with the Europeans, remilitarization, bullish nationalism, and even isolationism may become the order of the day in a post-Pax Americana Japan. The world is heading into very scary waters,” Takahashi said.

Way forward?

Terming Trump’s tariff disruption “a great threat to the economic development of Japan,” Taiwan-based academic Chien-Yu Shih said any potential trade deal will hinge on how much investment Japan commits to the US.

“As a result, there will also be a need to discuss Japan’s exchange rate, a trend that is certainly not conducive to its economic growth,” he explained, referring to Trump’s demand for a stronger Japanese yen against the US dollar.

US tariffs on Japanese exports of automobiles and steel will put Prime Minister Ishiba “in a political bind,” said the expert, warning that it could even push the Japanese parliament to suspend – or even terminate – the existing Trade Agreement on Goods (TAG) with Washington.

That would, in turn, “hurt US agricultural exports to Japan and create an even more intractable crisis,” added Chien-Yu, an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

One possible measure for the Japanese government, he continued, could be to “consider changing its laws to try to promote US auto exports to Japan, or to provide incentives to US automakers interested in entering the Japanese market.”

Another way for Japan to address the bilateral trade deficit is to buy more US goods such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), minerals, aircraft, semiconductors, and machinery, he added.

Chien-Yu also suggested increased cooperation “on strategic issues through co-development or investment in key areas such as energy infrastructure, mineral mining and processing, shipbuilding, defense, space, and artificial intelligence.”

On Trump’s wider dispute with China, he said the conflict is a “game of chicken to see who will fall first.”

“There is no bottom line in this tariff war, it’s just a matter of who can make it to the end … Many industries may find it difficult to return to the US, and at the same time face US tariff barriers that, if not changed, could force the supply chains of many more industries to join the Chinese camp,” he explained.

“In this way, Trump may make China great again, not the US. This is the worst scenario for US allies, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the EU.”