Thai PM may be out, but Shinawatra family to persist

BANGKOK

Their prime minister may be out, but the Shinawatra legacy lives on - a name that has dominated Thai politics for almost 15 years.

According to analysts, Wednesday's dismissal of Prime Minister Yingluck for abuse of power is a serious blow to the family, but it does not mark the end of elder brother Thaksin's 15-year grip on Thai democracy, which has allowed him to control all elected premiers since 2001.

“It's not yet the end... because even with P.M. Yingluck out of the game, there are other proxies for Thaksin. His influence was not limited to her... There remains several Thaksin supporters in the existing cabinet," political scientist Somjai Phagaphasvivat told the Anadolu Agency on Wednesday.

The Shinawatra family has become one of Thailand's most prominent Thai-Chinese business clans, investing in computer technologies, real estate and telecommunications - Thaksin founding Advanced Info Service, the country's most successful mobile phone operator, before deciding to enter politics at the end of the 1990s.

Academics have said that he learnt his trade while studying for a Masters in the U.S., and on returning was able to put his business acumen into practice in an economic system that had little protection from one party control.

In 2001, the former police officer charmed the country with his sharp business acumen, political populism, and a personality bordering on the brash, his newly-formed "Thai Rak Thai" (Thais loves Thais) party appearing from nowhere to win a large victory at the elections.

Cheap medical care and help with debt relief increased his popularity, especially among the rural poor, but his personality and huge support soon proved divisive, his CEO-style of governing and the reverence with which he was held making him deeply unpopular among many of Bangkok's rich elite.

Thaksin won again with an absolute majority in 2005 - in the process thrashing the Democrat Party old guard - but was overthrown a year later by the military, who accused him of corruption and of being disrespectful to the King. He relocated to the U.K., but on his allies winning the first post-coup elections, returned, only to face a raft of corruption charges.

Thaksin’s wife and then Thaksin himself received jail terms, Thaksin - his assets frozen - fleeing and becoming a fugitive. He divorced his wife - observers suggesting the split was motivated by an attempt to protect their assets - and now spends most of his time in Dubai.

Back in Thailand, the family did not stay dormant for long. Less than two years later, Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, was appointed prime minister after the dismissal by the Constitutional Court of another pro-Thaksin premier. And then in July 2011, Yingluck - who the opposition considered nothing but a proxy for her fugitive brother - won the election by a large margin.

Wednesday's court decision is likely to prevent any of the Shinawatras from again leading the country - despite speculation, Thaksin’s son, Panthongtae, does not seem willing to burn his wings in the political arena - but few believe the influence is over.

“Thaksin's influence will remain," said Phagaphasvivat. "Besides politicians, he has some extra-parliamentary groups on his side, for instance part of the bureaucracy.”

Some see the Shiniwatra legacy as greed; a corrupt political and economic populist opportunism that has helped Thaksin gain net wealth Forbes magazine puts at more than US$1.6 billion.

Others see its resilience traced back to the political consciousness that Thaksin awakened in the 2000s - bringing the rural poor into the political fold, making them realize that democracy could actually bring concrete benefits.

Academic and Thailand expert David Streckfuss belongs to the latter.

“The real gist of what is happening is not about the fortune of the Shinawatra family. It has become more of a naked struggle between anti-democratic and pro-democratic forces,” he told the AA.

englishnews@aa.com.tr