Should we worry? Expert weighs in on asteroid impact risk

ISTANBUL

Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, with a small but notable chance of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032—though experts stress there is no immediate cause for panic.

While the discovery may sound like something from a "bad Hollywood movie," astrophysicist Jonti Horner, a professor at the University of Southern Queensland, assured that "there’s no need to panic – this is just another day living on a target in a celestial shooting gallery."

In an article on Friday in The Conversation, a publisher of research-based news and analysis, Horner, however, emphasized that understanding the asteroid’s trajectory remained crucial.

A 1-in-77 chance of impact

2024 YR4 was first detected on Dec. 27, 2023, by the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile. Follow-up observations determined that it has a 1-in-77 chance of striking Earth.

"Of course, that means there is still a 76-in-77 chance it will miss us," Horner explained in the article.

According to him, current models indicate an uncertainty of about 100,000 kilometers in its projected position by 2032, placing Earth within its potential path.

Astronomers are racing to refine their calculations. "With every new observation of 2024 YR4, our knowledge of its orbit improves slightly," Horner noted.

The asteroid will become too faint to observe by April 2024, but another close approach in December 2028—at a distance of about 8 million kilometers—will provide a crucial opportunity to determine its exact trajectory.

Potential impact

Estimates suggested that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 100 meters in diameter. While far smaller than the 10-kilometer asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, it could still cause significant destruction.

"If it’s a rubble-pile asteroid, an impact would be similar to the Tunguska event in 1908," Horner explained, referencing the explosion over Siberia that leveled 2,200 square kilometers of forest.

Historical asteroid collisions, such as the Tunguska explosion and the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, offer insight into potential outcomes.

The Tunguska explosion devastated an area roughly the size of greater Sydney, while the Chelyabinsk event injured nearly 1,500 people due to shock waves and shattered windows.

If 2024 YR4 were composed of solid metal rather than loose rock, it could reach the ground intact and cause an even more severe impact.

Final answers expected in 2028

Although the world will have to wait for the 2028 observations to confirm whether 2024 YR4 will hit Earth, Horner remained cautious but pragmatic.

"At the end of that encounter, we will know for sure whether there will be a collision in 2032. And if there is to be a collision, we’ll be able to predict where on Earth it will be—likely to a precision of a few tens of kilometers."

For now, scientists will continue monitoring the asteroid, ensuring that humanity is prepared for any potential risks from space.