ANKARA
Economists predict that there will be no change in Turkey's investment-grade, 'BBB-' rating when credit agency Fitch updates that rating on Friday.
In its last assessment announced March 20,2015 Fitch confirmed Turkey’s credit rating at “BBB-“ which is at nvestment-grade level, with the outlook rated "stable," meaning that there is little chance for a default, and that a rating change in the short- to medium-term is not expected.
Speaking to AA on Wednesday, economists forecast that the rating would not change.
“Fitch in its last assessment published on Sept. 11 on Turkish banks said that Turkish markets would not suffer an abrupt and persisting capital outflow should the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. So we do not expect Turkey's rating to drop below investment grade,“ Haluk Burumcekci, chief economist of Burgan Investment, said.
However Burumcekci pointed out that the outlook may be lowered to “negative” territory, suggesting negative risks.
“Both in terms of budget balance and debt stock, Turkey deserves higher credit notes than it currently has. But since uncertainties and some structural dynamics pose risk factors, Turkey is rated just over investment grade. To fail in paying back its debt, a country normally would borrow faster than its growth rate. Turkey does not fit this case,” Bora Tamer Yilmaz from Ziraat Investment House said.
Yilmaz pointed out that Turkey has strong public finance which indicates ability to pay debts.
Finansinvest Chief Economist Burak Kanli said that he does not expect a downgrade from Fitch, neither in credit rating nor for outlook on Friday. He also cited Turkey's successful fiscal policy as the main factor in the assessment of credit rating agencies.
“If we saw a deterioration in this area, our credit rating would be faced with a great risk. Credit notes are expected to reflect the long-term dynamics of countries and to be consistent so as to project long-term developments, not to be increased or decreased from one day to the next, according to market conditions or conjuncture.” Kanli said.
