Turkey will no longer blindly follow US, EU: Analyst

ANKARA 

Turkey has not broken with the U.S. or EU but is no longer a country that does what it is told, a geopolitical analyst told Anadolu Agency on Friday.

In an email, Jacob Shapiro of U.S.-based think tank Geopolitical Futures (GPF) said: "Turkey has changed. It is no longer going to be a U.S. ally that does what the U.S. wants without question. [It] has its own interests and it is going to pursue those. On the other hand there is no expectation that Turkey to break the relationship with U.S. or Europe." 

Jacob L. Shapiro Director of Analysis for Geopolitical Futures (GPF) 

Shapiro evaluated Turkey’s short and long term geopolitical challenges in its region as well as recent tensions between Ankara and Washington over Turkey’s decision to purchase S-400 air defense systems from Russia.

"Sometimes those interests will line up with American and European interests. Sometimes they won't" he said.

Following protracted efforts to purchase air defense systems from the U.S. with no success, Ankara decided in 2017 to purchase Russia’s system.

It is also planning to purchase 100 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. and Turkish pilots are currently training at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona.

Among others, Turkish firms also supply the F-35 program with key components, including airframe structures and assemblies and the center fuselages.

Washington has cautioned that the S-400 system might obtain critical information on the advanced fighter jets, including detection range, which could then be relayed to Russia.  

No break with US or Europe

Shapiro said although Russia is one of the countries in the list of the U.S.’s great power competition, Turkey is free in its foreign policy choices.

"Turkey deals with Russia on its own, I wouldn't expect Turkey to break the relationship with the U.S. or with Europe” said Shapiro.

"But certainly even now we see Turkey redefining that relationship in terms of its power and its ambition, and that is only natural" he added.

According to a GPF analysis, S-400s are a symptom, not a cause and is a way for Turkey to show that it can chart a relationship with Russia on its own without any dependence on the U.S.

"Turkey doesn't necessarily have to choose between the U.S. and Russia. Turkey has clearly shown that it is on its own side" Shapiro said.

“For now that means balancing between the U.S. and Russia will be more tilted in the direction of the U.S. I think that will continue to be the case for the near-term future" he added.

Shapiro said the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson was a major turning point in the weakening of the U.S.-Turkish relations.

Brunson was arrested in December 2016 and charged in the Aegean province of Izmir with being a member of the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), the group behind a defeated coup earlier that year.

Brunson was sentenced to a little more than three years in prison. In July 2018, it was changed to house arrest and finally in October he was released due to time served and good behavior in custody. 

Challenges in foreseeable future

Commenting on Turkey’s short term regional challenges, Shapiro forecasted more volatility.

"The Syrian issue isn't anywhere close to being resolved. The Kurdish issue is not going away. Iran has an imperative to extend its power into areas that Turkey views as its sphere of influence" he said.

After underlining Iranian influence in the region, Shapiro said Turkey has more depth than Iranian power in terms of power.

"Iran is a challenger and is trying to establish a strong position in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Turkey will eventually have to make sure that Iran does not go too far" he said.

Turning to upcoming local elections in Turkey on March 31, Shapiro said GPF does not see Turkey’s local elections and most elections as vital.

"Justice and Development (AK) Party has consistently won national elections and continues to have broad support in Turkish society even if countries and other significant factions do not like the direction it is taking the country," said Shapiro.

More than 57 million Turkish citizens are registered to vote in the local elections held every five years.

A total of 12 political parties will participate in the local elections. The major parties are the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party, main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Good (IYI) Party, and Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

Also taking part are the Independent Turkey Party (BTP), Grand Unity Party (BBP), Democrat Party (DP), Democratic Left Party (DSP), Saadet (Felicity) Party, Communist Party of Turkey (TKP), and Patriotic (Vatan) Party.

On the Turkish economy, Shapiro said it is normal for countries to have economic downturns.

"Some unorthodox monetary polices might exacerbate some of these problems" he said.

He also highlighted the importance of an ability to endure an economic downturn without resorting to extraordinary measures.

GPF was founded in 2015 by geopolitical strategist and author George Friedman, whose works include The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade and Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe.