Türkiye expects strong grain harvest in 2026 amid favorable weather conditions

Türkiye’s agricultural sector is expecting a strong year for grain production in 2026, supported by favorable temperature trends, rainfall distribution in May and continued low drought risks, a sector representative told Anadolu.

Yasar Serpi, chairman of Ankara-based National Grain Council (UHK), said this year’s production season had been one of the most notable climatic periods for grain cultivation in the country.

He said regular rainfall since autumn had created favorable conditions, while April brought one of the most significant meteorological patterns seen in the past 50 years, helping meet crop water requirements during critical stages of development.

Serpi said rainfall levels in central Türkiye exceeded seasonal norms in April. Citing data from TurkStat, he noted that the region accounts for 37% of wheat cultivation areas and 31% of total wheat production, contributing to strong crop development.

He added that rainfall in southeastern Türkiye, which accounts for around 20% of production, had also strongly supported grain development and improved yield expectations in arid regions.

“In some areas of Hatay, a yield of 700-800 kilograms (1,543-1,763 pounds) is expected,” he said.

Serpi said grain development in northwestern and northern Türkiye -- particularly in the Marmara region and Black Sea region -- had been more favorable than last year because of regular rainfall.

He added that while heavy precipitation in eastern Türkiye supported plant growth, it also caused delays in planting and localized drainage problems in some low-lying areas, though the broader production outlook remained positive.

“Türkiye could achieve a wheat harvest of around 23 million tons and a barley harvest of 8.7 million tons in the 2026 production season if current climatic conditions don’t cause any notable adverse effects by May,” he said.

“Temperature trends in the coming period during the grain-filling stage, the distribution of May rainfall, and the continued low risk of drought will be decisive in final production volumes,” he added.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim