Antarctic ice loss predictable through mid-century, offering planners crucial window: Study

The rate at which Antarctica is losing ice today could provide governments with a reliable basis for planning for sea level rise through the middle of this century, according to an international study published last month in the journal Nature.

The research suggests that the next three to five decades represent a critical window during which scientists can make relatively confident projections before the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes far more difficult to predict.

The study was led by Felicity McCormack of Monash University’s Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF) program and involved researchers from Dartmouth College, Universite libre de Bruxelles and the Georgia Institute of Technology.

The team examined projections from Antarctic ice-sheet models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report to determine how reliably present-day ice loss could predict future sea level rise.

The researchers found that the current rate of Antarctic ice loss remains a strong predictor of the continent’s contribution to global sea level rise regardless of the emissions scenario or model used.

The finding makes near-term projections reliable enough to support coastal planning and climate adaptation through around 2055, the study said.

However, confidence declines later in the century as feedback processes, including marine ice sheet retreat, begin to accelerate ice loss and increase uncertainty.

The researchers said improving satellite observations and ice sheet models over the coming decades would be essential to narrowing long-term uncertainties.