• Trump's 'America First' approach could weaken US alliances, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence
• If Trump follows through on tariff threats, China may retaliate economically by targeting US companies operating in China or imposing tariffs on US export

• The author is a junior research fellow at the Caucasian Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (QAFSAM).

ISTANBUL

Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has heightened China's concerns regarding a range of complex challenges at bilateral and regional levels. His campaign promises and the individuals he plans to appoint to critical positions in his administration signal a tougher stance towards China. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports. [1] Such measures could have significant repercussions for China’s export-driven economy. Analysts estimate that such stringent trade policies could reduce China’s economic growth by up to two percentage points, significantly impacting its projected economic expansion rate.

Trump’s proposed administration appointments include individuals known for their hardline positions on China, highlighting a more confrontational approach. Marco Rubio is expected to serve as secretary of state, while Mike Waltz is slated for the role of national security advisor. John Ratcliffe, a former director of national intelligence, is anticipated to lead the CIA, with Pete Hegseth taking on the position of secretary of defense. Additionally, Robert Lighthizer, who played a pivotal role in trade wars during Trump’s previous term, is expected to return as trade representative, reinforcing expectations of escalating economic tensions with China.

In addition, the "Project 2025" initiative developed by the Heritage Foundation, [2] a prominent right-wing think tank, provided insight into the Republicans' potential China strategy. The project designates China as "the greatest threat to the safety, freedoms, and prosperity of Americans." Its primary objectives include preventing China from achieving dominance in Asia, safeguarding the security of key allies such as Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan, and further decoupling the US economy from China.

Additionally, the initiative seeks to exclude China from international organizations responsible for defining global standards and to encourage US allies to either directly confront China or take on greater responsibilities in other regions. While Trump has distanced himself from the project, his overall approach on China aligns with its principles, indicating a more proactive and strategic US stance against Beijing. [3]

Bilateral relations between US and China

In bilateral relations, expectations of continued trade wars are accompanied by anticipated tensions in the technological domain. The US is likely to expand export controls to limit China’s access to advanced technologies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Such measures could hinder China’s technological progress and self-reliance efforts.

Chinese technology companies operating in telecommunications and consumer electronics may face increased scrutiny and sanctions, potentially disrupting their global operations and supply chains. For instance, US pressure on TSMC to halt the supply of advanced chips to China could significantly restrict China’s access to semiconductors for AI applications over the long term. Although these measures pose short-term risks for China, they may also incentivize long-term efforts to strengthen its domestic technological capabilities and self-sufficiency. Reports indicate that China has increased its imports of chip-making equipment, reflecting its determination to develop a robust domestic semiconductor ecosystem. [4]

In the face of US export restrictions, Chinese companies may diversify their supply chains by sourcing materials and components from countries less aligned with US policies, such as those in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, some Chinese firms have begun leveraging cloud computing [5] solutions to bypass physical chip restrictions, ensuring continued progress in AI development despite hardware limitations. China may challenge US export restrictions through international trade bodies like the World Trade Organization, arguing that such measures violate trade agreements and principles of fair competition.

Anticipated regional trends

At the regional level, Trump’s isolationist tendencies and "America First" principle could work to China’s advantage. Unlike the Biden administration’s emphasis on multilateral cooperation, Trump’s approach may weaken US alliances in Asia, creating a power vacuum that China could fill. However, China remains cautious about Trump’s unpredictability, particularly regarding Taiwan. While Trump has remained ambiguous on whether the US would defend Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression, he has threatened to impose high tariffs on China if it intervenes. Additionally, arms sales to Taiwan are expected to increase under the Trump administration, potentially escalating regional tensions.

Against this backdrop, China is likely to continue military drills around Taiwan, showcasing its readiness to counter threats. This includes large-scale exercises simulating a blockade or invasion of Taiwan to demonstrate military capabilities and deter provocative actions by Taiwan and the US; if Trump follows through on tariff threats, China may retaliate economically by targeting US companies operating in China or imposing tariffs on US exports. Analysts suggest that while China is unlikely to rush into military action against Taiwan, it may continue employing "gray zone" tactics — non-military actions [6] aimed at pressuring Taiwan into submission without direct conflict.

Similarly, US military activity in the South China Sea is expected to increase. Chinese analysts anticipate a continuation of confrontational strategies from Trump’s first term, including freedom of navigation operations and joint exercises with allies like the Philippines and Japan. In response, China will likely strengthen its military presence in the South China Sea, deploying additional naval assets and conducting regular military drills to assert its territorial claims. China may also seek to balance US influence by enhancing diplomatic ties with ASEAN countries and promoting security cooperation frameworks that exclude the US. Furthermore, China could launch public relations campaigns portraying itself as a responsible power while framing US actions as destabilizing and aggressive.

In conclusion, Donald Trump's return to the White House poses significant challenges and opportunities for China in managing bilateral and regional relations. His administration's proposed hardline policies, including trade wars, technological restrictions, and alignment with strategic initiatives like Project 2025 signal a more confrontational stance. While these measures could disrupt China's economic and technological ambitions, they may also incentivize domestic self-reliance in key industries, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, alongside broader strategic adjustments in trade and defense policies. Regionally, Trump's "America First" approach could weaken US alliances, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence, though uncertainties surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea remain critical to the broader regional dynamics. China's response will likely involve a combination of economic, military, and diplomatic strategies to navigate these evolving dynamics.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-s-return-how-will-us-china-ties-fare-under-new-administration/3392868

[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/us/politics/trump-project-2025.html

[4] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/13/china-trump-xi-jinping-tariffs/

[5] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/how-us-sanctions-are-fueling-chinas-ambition-for-chip-self-reliance-18215263

[6] https://theconversation.com/why-china-is-worried-about-a-second-trump-presidency-and-how-beijing-might-react-243134

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.