by Abdul Hamid Chohan
ANKARA
As the United States readies for a military withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of this year, prospects for security and peace are likely to depend largely on how Afghanistan's neighbors behave.
Their support will be crucial to the new government's efforts to rebuild the country and its economy.
“The future of Afghan security, post-withdrawal will depend on how well the Afghan Taliban are brought back into the fold," said Michael Keating, a senior fellow at the University of Massachusetts. "It will also depend on the actions of the Pakistani government and its Inter-Services Intelligence, which have been intimately involved in Afghan affairs since the 1980s."
Afghanistan's neighbors have a key role to play, said Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, who researches development and security in Afghanistan at the National University of Singapore.
“India and Pakistan need to play a constructive role in stabilizing Afghanistan," D'Souza said. "India has provided more than US$2 billion for various infrastructure, development and capacity-building projects for rebuilding Afghanistan. There is a need for Pakistan to change course and involve itself in such reconstruction activities to accrue the good will among the Afghans and establish friendly relations with its neighbors."
The U.S. plans to leave up to 12,000 troops in Afghanistan after the withdrawal. Their role will be to advise, train and assist the Afghan security forces, especially the Afghan Army's Special Operations Forces. But the fate of the remaining contingent relies on security agreements to be signed between Afghanistan and the U.S. and NATO. That agreement has been delayed by outgoing President Hamid Karzai but most of the leading candidates to be his successor have committed to sign it.
Despite Taliban threats of violence to disrupt the Afghan elections, the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan says 64 percent of women, and a lower 34 percent of women, voted on April 5.
“The relatively large voter turnout and the smooth conduct of the Afghan presidential elections portends well for the future of democracy in Afghanistan," D'Souza said. "The issue is not as much a strong or centralized government as much as an inclusive and representative government that can unify across the ethno-tribal lines and provide effective governance and economic opportunities.”
Karzai has lately strived to establish dialogue with the Taliban, though it is not clear whether he has U.S. backing for the engagement with the group, who have been carrying out hit-and-run attacks in the capital Kabul. Without having formal control of any areas, the militant group has been able to make its presence felt throughout the country, especially in central and southern parts of Afghanistan, and will pose a challenge to Afghan security forces in the absense of foreign forces.
“The kind of security failures that the Afghan government has had of late, will probably not change anytime soon, whoever forms the next government," said Marvin G. Weinbaum, professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "It will be impossible to prevent individuals or a small group from mounting well planned attacks, particularly on soft targets in urban areas. But aside from the psychological effects, these, attacks are not a good measure of the Taliban's strength."
Everything depends on the confidence and will of these Afghan forces which will fade quickly in the absence of an international presence and, of course, without a government able to pay their salaries,” he said.
There is a worry that after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghan soil, financial assistance may also begin to fade away – as it has in Afghanistan's recent history.
"Remember that after Soviet troops pulled out in early 1989, the Afghan army remained effective as long as it still had its advisors and funding," said Weinbaum. "Similarly U.S. and other trainers can help to give confidence to the Afghans. Aside from the guidance they can offer, they are also symbolically important in demonstrating a continued international commitment to Afghanistan.”
Another concern for observers of Afghanistan's security is whether the number of NATO forces remaining after the withdrawal could effectively counter insurgency. D'Souza said that while Afghan forces will need help to build their own capabilities in challenging militant groups, NATO forces restricted to training can not be effective without a clear counter-insurgency strategy.
More than three decades of turmoil and war in Afghanistan have left the country with weak infrastructure, millions of displaced citizens and thousands who have been killed or disabled – a situation the country will struggle to recover from.
“Unfortunately what is happening in Iraq may serve as a blueprint for what happens when coalition forces leave. The center might hold for a while but eventually old fractures and animosities will come to the surface and a civil conflict is inevitable," said Keating. "The real question is whether the Afghan Taliban, primarily Pashtun, have learned any lessons over the past decade on how to participate in governing a multi-cultural Afghanistan."
With 60 percent of votes from Afghanistan's April presidential election now counted, it is being predicted that a run-off between the top two candidates will be needed to decide the country's next president. Former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah is leading the polls with 44.9 percent of votes counted so far and is expected to compete for the majority of votes with former Finance Minister Muhammad Asharaf Ghani who has 31.50 percent of votes.
Besides security issues, the newly-elected president will have to deal with a frail economy, weak infrastructure, reconstruction, unemployment, restrictions on female education and corruption. They will also have to work towards the repatriation and rehabilitation of Afghan refugees, millions of whom are living in Pakistan and Iran and who will only return if there is peace and economic stability. Foreign aid could be crucial in that reconstruction – when foreign forces withdraw, Afghanistan will need to ensure that it can meet the expenses of its security services and government workers.
