- ‘Ukraine’s negotiating position is severely weakened. Russia has advanced too far in this conflict to simply retreat, and Trump appears willing to make concessions to Putin,’ says political analyst Viktor Kozyrev

MOSCOW

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, shifting global dynamics have brought about a situation where a potential resolution could be in the offing.

Ending the war was one of US President Donald Trump’s main campaign promises and he has doubled down on the issue since returning to the White House last month.

Trump’s way of going about it has been unorthodox, to say the least, ruffling many feathers as he pursues direct communication with Russia, while sidelining Ukraine and Europe from the negotiations held so far.

With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump has taken a particularly hard line, especially after the Ukrainian leader initially refused the US demand for Kyiv to hand over rare earth minerals to the tune of $500 billion.

He has gone as far as labelling Zelenskyy “a dictator without elections,” and members of his team, such as US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, have said that Trump is “very, very frustrated” with the Ukrainian leader.

Trump’s approach toward Russian President Vladimir Putin has been starkly different, including direct phone calls, a new prisoner exchange earlier this month, and talk of another swap being on the cards.

Senior US and Russian officials also met in Saudi Arabia last week for the first time in three years. The talks were focused on the Ukraine war and bilateral ties between Moscow and Washington, with both sides agreeing to start efforts to restore relations at all levels.

Given these major shifts over recent days, observers in Russia believe Moscow now holds the upper hand over Ukraine, warning that Kyiv must brace for the worst-case scenario, in which its interests are disregarded in favor of broader geopolitical objectives.

“Under these circumstances, Ukraine’s negotiating position is severely weakened. Russia has advanced too far in this conflict to simply retreat, and Trump appears willing to make concessions to Putin,” Russian political analyst Viktor Kozyrev told Anadolu.

“As a result, the chances of reaching a just peace agreement that considers Ukraine’s interests are becoming increasingly slim.”

All indicators right now are that “Trump seemingly intends to strike a deal with Putin, prioritizing US interests over Ukraine’s,” he added.

In any peace talks, Kozyrev believes that the Kremlin will not relinquish its territorial gains and will insist on security guarantees, likely including Ukraine’s neutral status and its commitment to remain outside NATO.

“Given these factors, the battlefield situation will be decisive in determining Ukraine’s future. If the Ukrainian army fails to achieve significant military success and shift the course of the war, Trump will likely negotiate a deal with Putin that cements the current status quo … currently unfavorable for Ukraine,” he said.

In this context, continued Western support, particularly from Europe, becomes critically important. If the US reduces its assistance, the burden of supporting Ukraine will fall on European nations, he added.

​​​​​​​“Whether Europe can step up and provide sufficient support remains an open question,” Kozyrev emphasized. “Overall, the situation is extremely complex and uncertain. However, given all available data, it appears that the outcome will ultimately be decided on the battlefield,” he concluded.

On the growing tensions between Kyiv and Washington, Kozyrev cautioned that the disputes do not necessarily benefit Russia, as they also highlight the possibility of the US taking a similarly tough stance against Moscow.

Push for peace: Three major scenarios

Russian historian Maxim Vilkov believes that the conflict is reaching its final stage, but this phase could last indefinitely.

He outlined three major scenarios for the resolution of the war: freezing the conflict, recognizing a limited Russian victory, or continued fighting with the risk of escalation.

“The armed conflict in Ukraine seems to be entering its final stage. However, it could remain in this phase for a prolonged period,” he told Anadolu.

“There are three major scenarios, each with variations – freezing the conflict, recognizing a limited Russian victory, or continuing the war with the risk of further escalation.”

Vilkov explained that if the US consolidates Western support for Ukraine, facilitates new presidential elections there, and, crucially, finds effective economic pressure levers against Russia, Moscow may be forced to halt military operations along the front line.

“A ceasefire and negotiations would follow, resulting in an indefinite freezing of the conflict,” he said.

Putin said last June – and his stance remains unchanged – that Russia would “immediately” cease combat operations if Ukraine abandoned its NATO ambitions and withdrew its troops from the four regions claimed by Russia – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

He said Kyiv must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these territories and that the “new territorial realities” should be acknowledged globally. Additionally, Putin called for Ukraine’s “demilitarization and denazification,” a neutral and non-aligned status, and guarantees for the rights of Russian-speaking Ukrainians. He also demanded the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.

Vilkov believes Russia may achieve limited territorial gains if conditions are favorable – such as the US failing to apply effective pressure, the West lacking the capacity or willingness to provide sufficient military aid, and financial support for Kyiv dwindling.

“In this scenario, some sanctions could be lifted, particularly those that would benefit the West if removed,” he said.

In case of Russian advances on the ground, negotiations would begin based on Moscow’s proposals “to prevent the complete loss of Ukrainian territory,” he said.

“This could result in Ukraine adopting a demilitarized status and international recognition of the regions that have joined Russia along the existing front lines. The timeline for implementing such an agreement could span from fall 2025 to spring 2026,” he explained.

However, Vilkov warned that if no compromise is reached and economic pressure on Russia proves ineffective, Trump may declare that diplomatic options have been exhausted and decide to ramp up arms supplies to Ukraine.

“In this case, we could witness a significant escalation of the conflict, potentially transforming into a direct, albeit limited, confrontation between Russia and NATO. Predicting developments beyond this point becomes highly uncertain,” he said.​​​​​​​