Trump's victory shifts focus to US climate, trade policies

LONDON

Republican Donald Trump’s win in this week’s US presidential elections will have serious repercussions for the climate crisis and funding to fight it, clean energy transformation, and trade policies, experts say, adding that Trump policies in the pipeline may in fact weaken the US economy.

Trump pledged to scrap offshore wind energy projects during his campaign, which led to sharp declines in energy firms’ shares, especially in Europe. During his first term he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, a decision reversed by current President Joe Biden in 2021, but Trump is likely to repeat the US withdrawal.

The European Renewable Energy Price Index (ERIX) closed Wednesday down 9.5% after it became Trump had won the election.

Spanish-based renewable energy firm EDP Renovaveis lost 11% in shares, while shares of the world’s largest offshore wind energy firm Orsted shares lost 12.8%.

Danish-based wind turbine firm Vestas saw a 12.8% drop in its shares, and German renewable energy firm RWE’s shares fell 4.4%.

Nordex closed Wednesday with a 7.5% loss, and shares in Portuguese renewable energy firm EDP fell 7.1%.

Trump’s victory in the US elections came just days before the start of the UN Climate Change Conference COP 29 next Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The Biden administration will lead climate negotiations at the event since Trump will not be in office until January 2025.

With representatives from 200 countries participating, climate finance will be on the main issue at this year’s conference. Countries will seek to set a financing target to meet the needs of developing and underdeveloped countries, which are more vulnerable to the impact of climate change.

- Turbulent times await

Neil Makaroff, director at European think-tank Strategic Perspectives, told Anadolu that Trump’s victory is “a direct threat to European interests.”

“Under a Trump administration, the US will launch a fierce trade war with China and possibly the EU that could destabilize the global economy. Only a united response and a massive investment plan can protect Europe’s economic security in these turbulent times,” he said.

Makaroff said Europe needs to boost its industry and support decarbonization efforts to limit the influence of the new Trump administration and reduce dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the US.

“Member states can unite behind a strong clean industrial deal that gives Europe all the tools to develop ‘Made in EU’ value chains and increase energy security. It is the only way to face the double pressure of a US trade war and China's economic dominance,” he said.

“This is not the time for Europeans to be divided or to act individually,” he added.

- Efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 Celsius could be hurt

Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said the global temperature increase caused by human activity is 1.3C higher than the pre-industrial period, and due to this warming, people around the world are losing their lives.

Hare stressed that if Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement like he did in his first term, the US will pay the price. The agreement did not collapse when the US pulled out last time, but the country’s withdrawal now could dampen efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5C.

European Climate Foundation (ECF) CEO Laurence Tubiana said on X on Wednesday that the US presidential election results could set back global climate action.

“But let’s not despair. The Paris Agreement has proven resilient, stronger than any one country’s policies,” she said.

* Writing by Emir Yildirim in Istanbul