US consumer inflation expectations unchanged in October

US consumers’ inflation expectations remained unchanged across all three time horizons in October, while their labor market outlook was mixed, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Monday.

Median inflation expectations for one year ahead held at 3.9%, while the three-year and five-year outlooks remained at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively, according to the bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The survey, which covers approximately 1,300 household heads, showed expectations for home price growth were also unchanged at 3.0%.

Expected gasoline price growth over the next 12 months declined by 0.6 percentage points to 4.2%, while expectations for food price increases held steady at 5.5%.

However, consumers anticipated steeper increases in other major expenses. Expected medical care cost growth edged up 0.1 percentage points to 9.3%, while expectations for college education costs rose by the same margin to 7.6%. Expected rent increases climbed 0.9 percentage points to 7.7%.

Meanwhile, labor market sentiment was mixed: consumers became more concerned about unemployment and job loss,even as their perceived chances of finding a new job improved.

The average perceived probability that the US unemployment rate would be higher one year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, reaching its highest reading since April 2020.

The perceived likelihood of losing one's job over the next year increased 0.4 percentage points to 13.9%. However, the probability of finding another job if a current position were lost also rose 0.4 percentage points to 46.5%, the highest level since November 2025.

Expected household income growth eased 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, while anticipated spending growth declined 0.2 percentage points to 5.3%.

US consumer prices rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year in September. October inflation figures are scheduled for release on Tuesday.