ISTANBUL

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) predicts that by 2050, there could be anywhere from 44 million to 216 million climate migrants.

Experts suggest that as the impacts of the climate crisis intensify, inter-country climate migrations may become more frequent.

Climate change and rising global temperatures are leading to various natural disasters in many regions of the world.

The destructive consequences of natural disasters and extreme weather events are forcing people to migrate to safer areas.

According to a 2022 report by the IOM, which is affiliated with the UN, an average of 21.6 million people globally had to migrate within their countries over the past decade due to climate change-related difficulties.

The report warns that climate change risks are on the rise globally, with an estimated 1 billion people expected to confront issues like rising sea levels, floods, droughts, extreme temperatures, and food security in the next decade.

According to the report, from 2012 to 2021, the regions most impacted by climate change-related weather events were, in descending order: East Asia and the Pacific, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas (both North and South), the Middle East and North Africa, Europe, and Central Asia.

The report, including data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), highlights that millions were affected by climate-related disasters in various regions: East Asia and the Pacific (over 10 million), Southeast Asia (more than 8 million), Sub-Saharan Africa (over 2 million), the Americas (about 2 million), and the Middle East and North Africa (nearly 2 million).

The report highlights that even in Europe and Central Asia, where climate crisis-related human mobility was the lowest, nearly 2 million people had to cope with flood disasters.

Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios

The report emphasizes that the numbers may change based on the level of global warming and population growth. It says that between 44 million and 113 million people are expected to migrate within their countries by 2050.

However, under a pessimistic scenario with more severe climate change, this number could reach between 125 million and 216 million.

The report also lists the regions with the highest anticipated human mobility by 2050 as follows: Sub-Saharan African countries, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, North Asia, Latin America, and Europe and Central Asia.

The report stressed that rising sea levels could lead to 750,000 climate migrants on the East African coast from 2020 to 2050. In Bangladesh, a sea level rise of 0.44 meters could result in 730,000 climate migrants, while a rise of 2 meters could lead to 2.1 million climate migrants by 2100.,

Reasons forcing climate migrants to relocate

Individuals who are forced to leave their places, either temporarily or permanently, due to climate and environmental events negatively affecting their lives or living conditions are referred to as "climate migrants" by the IOM, Melike Dedeoglu, a member of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Erciyes University in Türkiye, told Anadolu.

Dedeoglu said that climate migrants' reasons for migration can vary, including factors like climate-related disasters (such as floods), decreased agricultural productivity, water scarcity, drought, and extreme temperatures.

She said that a global warming-induced sea level rise causes land loss and consequently migration.

Dedeoglu added that conflicts stemming from increased competition for natural resources can also drive climate migrations.

"Such migrations can occur worldwide due to climate crisis-induced disasters. For example, Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005 caused one of the largest migration events in US history, with 1.5 million people moving temporarily, 300,000 people permanently, and 107,000 people migrating illegally,” she said.

­Inter-country migrations

Dedeoglu noted that in climate migrations, people initially choose regions within their own countries, but as the global effects of the climate crisis intensify, there may be more frequent international migrations in the future.

"We have seen real cases. In 2013, there was a climate crisis-related refugee application from Kiribati to New Zealand, but it was denied. “There is a refugee definition outlined in the Geneva Convention, and climate-induced migration doesn't currently meet these criteria. Millions of people facing this issue are excluded as there hasn't been a regulation addressing it yet," she said.

Dedeoglu also pointed to the UN Climate Change Panel's warnings of increased warming in the Mediterranean region and stressed that Türkiye, as part of this region, will be affected by climate migration.

*Writing by Necva Tastan