- ‘The change we are seeing vis-a-vis China is coming from the EU Commission … and Spain that has pushed hard, with the help of Italy, to engage more with China,’ says Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
- EU and China will strive for common ground because they need each other, says George Tzogopoulos of the European Institute of Nice
- ‘Beijing sees the EU as a diachronically important partner in building a multilateral world … The EU cannot deal with current global challenges without joining hands with China,’ says Tzogopoulos
ATHENS
Washington’s antagonistic policies under President Donald Trump will significantly influence Europe’s relations with China, potentially reshaping geopolitical alignments and economic partnerships, according to senior experts.
Sari Arho Havren, a China analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), pointed out that despite the apparent turbulence caused by the Trump administration’s moves, the substantial shifts in Europe-China relations are primarily emerging from within the EU itself.
“The change that we are seeing vis-a-vis China is coming from the EU Commission, as shown by its President Ursula von der Leyen’s softened speaking points, and Spain that has pushed hard, with the help of Italy, to engage more with China,” Havren told Anadolu.
She further explained that EU member states geographically distant from Russia and Ukraine have historically demonstrated greater openness towards China compared to those states more directly influenced by the conflict.
The latter group tends to recognize more clearly the underlying strategic ties between Moscow and Beijing, as well as “China’s role as the enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” she added.
As for China’s response toward these developments within the EU, Havren expressed skepticism, asserting that Beijing has offered nothing beyond “empty talking points” and a change to a friendlier tone.
“Considering the dire economic and security dilemma in the EU, Beijing has likely calculated that it does not have to offer anything,” Havren argued.
She believes China urgently needs to maintain and even expand access to European markets due to its internal economic difficulties and expanding industrial overcapacity.
However, the expert added that the EU remains rightly concerned about heavily subsidized Chinese industries potentially overwhelming European competitors.
These concerns, she indicated, constitute significant barriers to improving bilateral relations.
Divergent EU perspectives and US-Russia-China triangle
Havren pointed out that European nations hold diverse perspectives on engagement with China, often influenced by distinct commercial interests and internal political leanings.
She said these differences persist among member states despite the EU-wide strategy to “de-risk” economic dependence on China, especially in critical sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
“This dynamic often creates a divide within the EU as these nations attempt to balance economic engagement with union-wide strategic goals,” she said.
“Moreover, as several EU nations reassess their ties as a result of widening fractures in the transatlantic alliance after Trump, China will seek to exploit this state of affairs.”
Reflecting on the warming of US-Russia relations under Trump, Havren was skeptical about Washington’s potential to create a significant rift between Moscow and Beijing.
“I think Putin will try to play Trump to gain leverage, and balance the relationship with China, but the China-Russia relationship is way more beneficial for both parties at the moment due to their shared vision of the world order, than what the US can offer to Russia,” Havren added.
Prospects for stronger EU-China ties
George Tzogopoulos, a senior China expert and lecturer at the European Institute of Nice (CIFE), offered a slightly different perspective, suggesting the present climate provides a solid foundation for the EU and China to strengthen their relationship independently of US influences.
“Under the current circumstances, I expect the EU and China to strive to find a common way forward because they need each other and not because of Trump’s presidency,” Tzogopoulos told Anadolu.
“In the first part of the Joe Biden presidency, the EU toughened its stance vis-a-vis China without tangible results. In the second part of his presidency, especially after China’s reopening following the end of the pandemic, the EU attempted to re-engage in dialogue with Beijing – not only the EU itself, but more significantly member states such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.”
This trend, he continued, is likely to be “reinforced” under the second Trump presidency, but more serious issues, such as the deeper involvement of European companies in China and the EU de-risking policy, “will remain unsolved.”
According to Tzogopoulos, an end to the conflict in Ukraine could further boost EU-China relations, removing the substantial barrier created by their current opposing stances in the war.
“In addition to the fact that it is the largest destination for Chinese imports, Beijing sees the EU as a diachronically important partner in building a multilateral world,” he emphasized.
“As for the EU, it cannot deal with current global challenges without joining hands with China. For instance, it is impossible to reach climate change goals without utilizing Chinese technological advancements.”
On Washington and Moscow’s possible reaction to stronger EU-China relations, he responded: “The US under Trump is expected to deal with China irrespective of what the EU believes or does, while Russia is expected to continue relying on its partnership with China, because of a lack of trust in the US – even under Trump – regardless of the EU position.”
However, the Trump administration, Tzogopoulos continued, could try to use the EU’s dependence on China to exert some pressure on Brussels.
Russia, on the contrary, could be expected to favor better EU-China relations if they lead to sanctions relief and more trade possibilities for Moscow, he said.
